In analyzing the Philadelphia Phillies and their opponents, we look to formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Phillies’ favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my life-long, in-depth knowledge of the National League East and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Gametime Sharks be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox (DH)
Current State of the Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies’ start of the season has been as disappointing as a waiter bringing you a cheesesteak with ketchup instead of cheese whiz – it just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
The bullpen, supposedly one of the best in the majors, has allowed 18 of the 29 inherited runners (62.1%) and 6.83 ERA, worst and second-to-worst, respectively, in the MLB.
What compounds their struggles in pitching are the errors in baserunning. The Phillies lead the majors with a .293 team batting average. Unfortunately, they’re tied with Pittsburgh in the majors in the category of having base running outs.
Anytime we’re tied with Pittsburgh in anything, it’s almost always bad.
However, all is not lost for the Fightin Phils. As stated before, the offense has been impressive, with second baseman Bryson Stott 4th in the majors in batting average with a .380 mark.
Outfielder Brandon Marsh has been even more impressive, 5th in the majors with a .378 batting average, a league-leading .756 slugging percentage, and second in On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS) at 1.196.
Unfortunately, besides the base-running gaffes, they average stranding 4.25 runners per game, third worst in the majors.
With all of these maladies, they still have a 6-10 record. It’s not hard to imagine a couple of base knocks with runners in scoring positions or just fewer base-running errors and they would be right with the Atlanta Braves at the top of the NL East.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago White Sox (DH)
When Monday’s game was canceled, it was decided that these two teams would play a doubleheader today for the make-up. The only thing better than betting on a Phillies game is getting the chance to invest in TWO Phillies games in one day.
The first pitch of game one is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. RHP Zach Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies and RHP Lance Lynn takes the bump for the White Sox. The current line has Philly -135 and the White Sox +115 with the total runs set at 8.
Remember how I said Philadelphia had the second-worst bullpen ERA in the Majors? Luckily for Phillies fans, the Chi Sox are the worst, with a 7.57 ERA. It gets worse for them as Lynn is only slightly better, with a 7.31 ERA. In 16 innings pitched, he’s given up 19 hits, six of which have been home runs, and seven walks, all of which gives him a 1.63 WHIP. Father Time is finally catching up with Lynn, as his average fastball has slowly declined and now is 92.3, almost two mph lower than the 2021 season.
While Wheeler isn’t setting the world on fire with a 4.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.40, he has gotten quite unlucky, as his Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) is .333, about 50 points higher than his previous two seasons with the Phillies. The average velocity of his fastball is still 96.4, higher than the 96.1 he threw last year.
The run line for the game is -1.5 and that sees the Philadelphia Phillies at +135. I really like this play as these two 6-10 teams look equal at first glance but upon further digging it’s evident that the Phils are a stronger all-around team. If they can get out of their own way they can easily right this ship.
Our first investment of the year is going to be a 3-unit wager on the Phillies -1.5 run line at odds of +135. A $100 wager will win $405.00 and payout $705.00.
Let’s get this season started off on a great note!
