Fantasy Baseball: Start These 3 Hitters for DFS, Other Huge Value

Your Fantasy Baseball Rundown for Saturday 5/6

It’s Saturday and as usual all teams are active, and with first-pitch at 2:15 PM EST — and last-first-pitch at 9:40 — there’s plenty of action all day. Here are some insights to help you set your DFS or season-long lineups, and perhaps you can use this information to help build your own parlay!

DFS Stack of the Day

There are a couple games that have batters and pitchers with quite a bit of history, including LAD (Dustin May) @ SD (Blake Snell), but you’ll want to stack these three Astros versus Seattle’s Marco Gonzalez:

Yordan Alvarez: 7-for-16 (.438), 3 XBH, 2 HR, 3 BB; Other than his history vs Gonzalez and being one of the most dangerous hitters on the planet, if you need more convincing, Alvarez is 8-for-28 with 2 doubles, 2 home runs, 3 walks, and 6 RBI over his last eight games. Not exactly hot, but definitely not cold either. He does, however, seem to be on a mini power outage by his standards – last season he averaged a long ball once every 12 at-bats, or about every 3 or 4 games. His last long ball came 24 at-bats ago on 4/22, which was seven games ago. Sorry Mariners, Yordan is due. (Update: Alvarez went 1-for-4 with a HR, 3 RBI, and a run scored in Friday night’s contest)

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Kyle Tucker: 6-for-18 (.333), 3 XBH, 1 HR; Tucker is cold right now, 2-for-22 over his last six games, but he’s an All-Star caliber player who will figure it out, probably soon and most likely against someone he’s familiar with (looking at you Gonzalez). And as a reminder, Tucker is actually hitting lefties better so far this year (10-35, .286) than righties (18-73, .247). (Update: Tucker went 3-for-4 with a 2B, a HR, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored in Friday night’s contest)

Jeremy Pena: 3-for-10 (.300), 2 XBH, 2 HR; Pena was hitless Tuesday and Wednesday this week, but prior to that he was on a seven game hit streak that three multi-hit games and three home runs. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year has actually been better on the road, hitting .280 in 50 at-bats in the other team’s parks, while hitting just .205 at home in 73 at-bats. His splits so far this year also having him seeing the ball well versus lefties, slashing .310/.655/1.05 against them, while putting up a .213/.372/.625 against righties. (Update: Pena went 1-for-4 in Friday night’s contest)

Here are some other notable matchups:

Start vs Sit

Hitters:
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Start Yandy Diaz: Diaz is 5-for-16 (.313) off of Domingo German and batting .327 on the season. He’s also got a respectable 8 home runs, and is on a stretch right now that has him on base via a hit or walk in 17 of his last 18 games, with at least 2 hits in 9 of those games. (Update: Diaz was 1-for-4 with a HR, RBI, and 2 runs in Friday night’s contest)

Sit Max Muncy: Listen, you don’t normally sit the league home run leader, but if there was ever a time to do it, this could be it. Muncy is 1-for-14 (.071, 4 strikeouts) off of Snell in his career. And while Muncy has 12 home runs on the year, those have come in 9 games because Muncy has a tendency to hit his HR in bunches — he’s got three multi-HR games on the season. And Yandy Diaz still provides you with some pop.

Pitchers:

Start Alex Cobb: Cobb has been a bit inconsistent with his innings this season and has given up at least 6 hits in each of his first 5 starts, but current Brewers have a .171 batting average in 48 plate appearances versus Cobb. He’s pitching at home in Oracle Park which is traditionally viewed as pitcher-friendly. For DFS purposes, he’ll be cheaper ($9000 on DraftKings) than some of the other options available (i.e. Spencer Strider @ $11,500) which should give you some roster flexibility.

Sit Marco Gonzalez: This isn’t exactly a hot take, but as outlined above, the Houston bats should give him some trouble. He’s coming off of a game in which he lasted just 3 innings and gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. He’s just $7700 on DK, so a cheaper option than Cobb, but don’t go trying to be a hero, give Gonzalez a seat on the bench.

DFS Sleeper Alerts

Some recent call-ups could provide some cheap options with potential to help your lineups:

Miguel Amaya – C – Chicago Cubs: Amaya was promoted this week and made his debut Thursday. With Yan Gomes to miss at least a few more games due to concussion, Amaya could get another start this weekend (he was in the lineup Friday and went 0-for-2 with a HBP). On Thursday, he had some competitive at-bats and was able to collect his first major league RBI. If he’s starting (Tucker Barnhart is the other Cubs catcher), he could provide an under the radar option at catcher for a cheap price.

Matt Mervis – 1B – Chicago Cubs: Mervis is another Cubs prospect that was called up this week and made his debut Friday, collecting his first big league hit and his first big league RBI. You’ll hear “Mash Mervis” thrown around, and that’s because he can hit for power. He tied for second last year in the minors with 36 HR. Batting seventh in his debut and perhaps going forward, he should see a decent amount of RBI opportunities with some combo of Happ/Suzuki/Bellinger/Mancini hitting in front of him.

Braden Shewmake – SS – Atlanta Braves: Shewmake has been called up and is starting at SS Friday night to begin a series with Baltimore. Shewmake hasn’t been tearing it up in the minors, but he had a nice showing in spring training this year while trying to win a roster spot. While both he an Amaya will be penciled-in at the bottom of their respective orders, any spot in the potent Braves lineup has potential to produce some offense.

Friendly Public Service Announcements

As you are building or setting your lineups this weekend, here are some nuggets to keep in mind:

• The SF Giants offense currently has the highest strikeouts per game rate (10.57); next closest is Seattle (9.81). If you’re looking for strikeouts, start pitchers facing the Giants.
• The Oakland A’s bullpen has the worst ERA and WHIP in baseball at 6.78 and 1.75 respectively. If you’re considering a hitter who has solid numbers against the A’s starter, there’s also a good chance the bullpen could implode and provide your hitter with an additional boost.
• Don’t forget about stolen base production! They are much more prevalent this year, and the NL leader is Ronald Acuna Jr.(15) while the AL leader is Esteury Ruiz (13).

Betting angle

Houston @ Seattle over 8.5 total runs: in addition to the Marco Gonzalez situation outlined above, Houston is starting J.P. France who is making his MLB debut. France has been good in the minors this year, but this is the majors, on the road against the likes of 2022 Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez, 2022 All-Star Ty France, Eugenio Suarez who hit 31 HR last season, and former top prospect Jarred Kelenic who’s slashing .304/.598/.961 with 7 HR on the year.

Freeman/Trout to get a hit parlay (+115 at DraftKings): got burned on this last time because Elias Diaz ended up not starting, but he came in later and got 2 plate appearances, recording no hits (0-0, 2 SAC, 2 RBI). These are name brands so they’ll likely be starting unless there’s an injury or day of rest, but if you can, wait to submit until lineups come out.

#Ready2Reign #NextStartsHere