Week 4 Thursday Night NFL DFS DraftKings Showdown

We’re going to take another shot at creating a DFS lineup for Thursday’s Lions @ Packers game. This will be for DraftKings Showdown Captain Mode where you have $50k to spend on a Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x cost) and 5 Flex spots.

Game Script

Jordan Love has been a pleasant surprise for Packers fans, although perhaps maybe not as much of a surprise since he was Aaron Rodgers‘ understudy for a few years before taking the reins. And this team is riding high after mounting a late comeback last week against the Saints, plus they expect to get WR Christian Watson back this week and possibly RB Aaron Jones, so they should have a full complement of weapons against their divisional foe – the Detroit Lions. This game is in Green Bay too, so the atmosphere for this rivalry game should be electric, at least to start the game. I’m of the belief that this game will expose the Packers and Jordan Love, however, and Detroit is going to come out swinging. 

The Lions got a chance to prove they are a force to be reckoned with in their Week 1 win over the Chiefs and completed the mission. They of course then had a let-down game at home against the Seahawks, but more so a let-down on defense since you’d normally win a game when your offense scores 31 points. They righted the ship last week against the Falcons, allowing just 6 points. It’s a short week so these games can get sloppy, and perhaps the Packers will be fresher since the aforementioned Watson and Jones didn’t play this past Sunday, but Dan Campbell will have his team fired up and focused again for this one. With Aaron Rodgers gone this is an opportunity for a changing of the guard in the NFC North. The Vikings and Bears are both 0-3 to begin the season, so the Lions will be treating this like the Week 1 game against the Chiefs — a chance to prove that they are a playoff-caliber team.

Jordan Love’s completion percentage is 53.1% so far this season. Do you know where that lands him on the completion percentage leaders list? Second-to-last, just above Zach Wilson. Ewww. EVERY OTHER QB has a higher percentage than him, including the likes of Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, and Desmond Ridder. I think that gets exposed Thursday, unfortunately in front of the home crowd. Speaking of Desmond Ridder, he was able to throw for 237 yards in Week 2 against this Packers secondary, so I expect Goff to do just as good if not better. Goff is sixth-highest on the completion percentage list at 69.9%, and has thrown for 819 yards through 3 games (Love has 655 yards) and 5 TD (Love has 7). Goff has better weapons and a better defense to carry the Lions to victory, and perhaps a lopsided one. I think you go with a QB more often than not in the Captain’s spot, and you’ll go with the one that’s favored, in this case the Lions are favorites (although just 2-point favorites per Vegas).

Captain

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most expensive option here and probably for good reason. He’s a target-hog for the Lions who catches many of those targets and converts a handful of those targets into TDs each season. If you want to take a chance in differentiating your lineup, selecting Amon-Ra as Captain is probably the way to do it, but Jared Goff is the one throwing him the ball and he’s a cheaper price, plus you’ll have less money to spend elsewhere if you go with St. Brown. I think Goff will be throwing to his new shiny weapon at tight end as well, rookie Sam LaPorta. If he’s throwing TDs to both of them you’ll want to capture that in the Captain spot, then stack the others in the Flex so you can essentially double up the points.

Flex

I think you can squeeze St. Brown in your lineup and still be able to afford a good group around him. I also already mentioned Sam LaPorta, and I’m going to play him too. The rest of this lineup assumes David Montgomery won’t play or will be very limited after not being able to go last Sunday with a groin injury. 

If you think this game goes the way I do, then you’ll want to include the Lions’ dynamic young rookie RB also, Jahmyr Gibbs. In Montgomery’s absence last week he rushed 17 times for 80 yards. It would be nice to see the playmaker involved more in the pass game, and perhaps that starts this week. 

Now if you’re going to take those 4 guys, then you will not be left with much to spend on the last 2 spots. Do not fret, however, as we have a plan. Now, it’s a bit of a prayer, but last week the Lions called up practice squadder Zonovan Knight. He only managed 13 yards on 3 carries, however, this was basically the same production as Montgomery-fill-in Craig Reynolds. If Knight is able to earn some extra touches in practice this week, perhaps he can usurp the Reynolds role altogether and maybe we luck into a touchdown. Don’t forget that Knight performed admirably in 2022 after both Breece Hall and Michael Carter were lost to injury for the Jets, gaining 300 yards on 85 carries (3.5 yards per rush) and a TD, plus 14 catches for 100 yards and a receiving TD. And he only costs $1k. 

Lastly, not all players can be from the same team, so we have to select a player from the Packers. Not surprisingly, there aren’t many good options left with the funds we can spend. I’m going to take a flyer on the Packers D. They are at home and should have a little extra juice, and Goff is not infallible. He’s thrown 2 picks so far and has been sacked 3 times. Maybe we can get a couple sacks, grab an INT, and hope for a pick-six or scoop-and-score.

The Team

• Captain – Jared Goff ($15.6K)
• Flex – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11.6K)
• Flex – Sam LaPorta ($8.0K)
• Flex – Jahmyr Gibbs ($9.6K)
• Flex – Zonovan Knight ($1.0K)
• Flex – Packers D ($3.6K)