Matchups to Target
Albies collected his 100th RBI of the season Thursday night (and his 101st, 102nd, and 103rd) and has now collected a hit in 8 straight games. During the hit streak he is 16-for-37 (.432) with 5 2B and 3 HR, plus 10 RBI and 8 R. Friday night he’ll take on a familiar foe, LHP Patrick Corbin, and he’ll get to hit from his more comfortable side to start the night — right-handed. Albies’ slashline versus LHP is .387/.613/1.017 while it’s .244/.481/.790 versus RHP. His numbers against Corbin are actually better than his slashline suggests, going 13-for-30 (.433) against the southpaw with 3 2B, a 3B, 3 HR, and 1 BB:6 K. Corbin brings a 5.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP into the matchup, along with splits that show he doesn’t pitch as well at home this season (5.20 ERA vs 4.83 away) and is worse against right-handed hitters (so there could be some other Braves hitters you could use tonight, hint-hint) with a .298/.489/.834 slashline against righties versus .265/.410/.741 to lefties. One last note — the Nats’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA and second-worst WHIP in the National League, which could provide some additional opportunities for Albies, and 27 of his 32 home runs have come from the left side of the plate so there isn’t a lack of power against RHP. The Braves are heavy favorites in this one (-250) and the game has a somewhat high O/U of 9.
Adam Dunn Chris Davis Oops, I mean Kyle Schwarber and his 45 HR (2nd in MLB) and .196 batting average (146th) takes on the Mets’ RHP Tylor Megill on Friday night in Philadelphia. There’s not much history to go off of here, with Schwarber going 0-for-2 with 2 walks against Megill in his career, but we’re going with Schwarber because of the splits for Megill. First of all, Megill’s home/road ERA splits look like this: 3.41/7.09. His opponent batting average splits home/road look like this: .257/.332. Then, his righty/lefty slashline splits look like this: .281/.446/.811 vs .303/.465/.847. So if he’s not so good on the road and gives up more production to lefties, we’re going to go with the guy who’s got the best chance to go yard (maybe twice?). Schwarber’s at-bats-per-HR ratio on the year is 12.4, and he’s now had 11 at-bats since his last HR (a FOUR HUNDRED EIGHTY THREE foot blast), so the next one is coming very soon! The Phils are favored (-160) with an O/U of 9.
With all the storylines this season and the massive under-performance of the Padres in general, Soto’s season has gone a bit under the radar, but make no mistake it has been a fine season for the keen-eyed lefty. He’s batting .267 with 32 HR, 101 RBI, .909 OPS, and has more walks than strikeouts (126:123). He’ll face RHP Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals on Friday night in San Diego. Soto is 1-for-4 off of Hudson in his career, which includes a double, but also has walked FIVE times against him. Hudson has just 10 starts this season, but in the small-ish sample he’s got a 3.65/7.62 home/road ERA split, and lefties slash .291/.448/.814 against him (.246/.403/.743 for righties). The Padres are favored here (-178) and this game too has an O/U of 9.
You know you can always use Betts (although he’s having a down September, batting .232 with just 1 HR), so I’ll spare all the ancillary stats and just tell you that he’ll face LHP Sean Manaea Friday night in L.A. Manaea might be an opener of sorts so don’t expect him to go deep into the game, but hopefully Betts can get a couple of at-bats against him. In his career, Betts is 10-for-26 (.385) with 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 2 BB, and 3 K against Manaea. Manaea has a 4.82 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2023. LA is favored here (-170) and again the game has an O/U of 9.
DFS Value Plays
Brandon Marsh ($3200 on DK)
Listen, if you want to use a Phillie, we talked about Schwarber above, but of course Bryce Harper is a lefty as well, and Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos have been hot, but if you want a cheap lefty that gives you a chance for some power, then Marsh may be your guy. He’s a lefty like Schwarber and although he’s only got 10 HR on the season, he’s 2-for-2 off of Tylor Megill in his career with one of those hits being a HR.
Ryan O’Hearn ($3700 on DK)
O’Hearn has got the opportunity to play and he’s made the most of it, going 23-for-64 (.359) in September with 6 2B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, and 13 R. He’s currently riding a 6-game hit streak, during which time he’s 12-for-26 (.462) and he’s been hitting in the middle of the young-yet-potent Orioles lineup, putting him in prime position for RBI opportunities. He’ll face former Cy Young winner RHP Shane Bieber on Friday in Cleveland, but Bieber is coming off the IL and hasn’t pitched since early July. In his career, O’Hearn has had quite a bit of success off of Bieber, going 6-for-17 (.353) off of him with 2 2B, a HR, and 2 BB:6 K.
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