Phillies Betting Recap
In my last Phillies betting preview, I had the Phillies on the money line for a unit and under 8.5 runs for a unit. Philadelphia came through in style, winning 1-0 has five different Philly pitchers combined for a 3-hit shutout. The newly acquired first baseman Kody Clemens provided all of the runs needed with an RBI single in the second inning.
While Philadelphia may not be performing as well as the fans had anticipated, they have the exact same record this year after the first 32 games as they did last year. All they needed to do was tread water and get a little healthy, which is exactly what is happening.
I’ll take a look at their upcoming game against the Boston Red Sox and try to figure out the enigma that’s wrapped inside a mystery that is the Philadelphia Phillies.
All lines and odds are courtesy of BetUS.
Boston Red Sox (20-14) at Philadelphia Phillies (15-18)
The Red Sox and Phillies battle each other in the second game of a 3-game series on Saturday. The line is currently Boston +125 Philadelphia -140 with a total of 9.5 runs. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m.
The Red Sox send RHP Corey Kluber (1-4 6.44) to the mound to face off against the Phillies LHP Bailey Falter (0-5 5.01).
You will be hard-pressed to find two starters that are more underwhelming. Kluber used to be quite an effective starter whose ERA was routinely under 3.00. However, Father Time caught up with him and his fastball has continued to decrease in velocity, almost 2 MPH less than two seasons ago.
The Phil’s Falter also used to have an ERA under 3.00…in the minors. After a modestly successful season last year, Falter has struggled to get batters out this season. Opposing hitters are batting an impressive (for them) .281 against Bailey and he is currently posting the highest WHIP (1.33) of his short career.
To further compound the issue, players are hitting Falter like it’s batting practice, with his HardHit% at 39.6% and Barrel%10.4%. Both of these advanced metrics, courtesy of Fangraphs, measure the percentage of contact that meets the “fat” part of the bat and the percentage of batted balls that have an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher.
After winning four in a row to move two games above .500, the Phillies have given those four games back and once again are two games under. Boston’s 20-14 record includes a mark of 7-7 away from home.
I’m focusing in on two wagers. First, with the level of quality that is taking the mound to start with both of these teams, I’m going to invest TWO UNITS on the over 5.5 runs +100 for the first 5 innings. Getting even money with these two pitchers feels almost like stealing.
Second, I’m going to go against the slumping Phillies. I love getting a team that’s six games above .500 against a losing squad. That love turns to adoration when I’m getting almost 3/2 on my money.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Red Sox ML +145 2 UNITSÂ Â Â Â Pick: Over 9.5 runs +100 2 UNITS
Season Record:
Run Line: 2-0 (+8 units)
Total: 1-1 (-1 units)
Money Line: 1-0 (+1 units)
Total: 4-2 (+8 units)
