Series Recap and Tonight’s Matchup
The Seattle Mariners (21-21) and Boston Red Sox (23-20) face off in the rubber match of a 3-game set at Fenway Park tonight. The Mariners took the series opener 10-1 in a brutal showing for the Sox in both facets after a mediocre outing from Tanner Houck. They would go on to bounce back in Tuesdays game with a 9-4 win on the back of multi-hit games from Yoshida, Turner, Verdugo and Duran, as well as stellar bullpen play from the 5th inning on. Game time for Wednesday is set for 7:10pm EST.
All Betting Lines and Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Projected Starters and Betting Lines
Marco Gonzales (3-0, 4.42) vs Brayan Bello (2-1, 5.01)
ML: BOS -130
SEA +110
Run Line: BOS -1.5 (+145)
SEA +1.5 (-170)
O/U: 9.5
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Brayan Bello – Consistency?
The 24-year old Brayan Bello has never pitched against Seattle in his young MLB career, while Marco Gonsales has appeared against the Sox 5 times, holding a 1-2 record, a 5.26ERA and 24 Ks. Over Bellos last 2 starts, he has had almost identical pitching lines against 2 of the games better offenses. On May 10th against the Braves, Bello went 6 innings, allowing 6 hits and 2 runs while striking out 5, as he would pick up the win as the Sox won 5-2 over Atlanta. On May 4th vs Toronto, he would go 5 innings, allowing 6 hits, 4 runs (2 earned) and 5 strikeouts, also picking up the win as the Sox beat the Blue Jays 11-5 at Fenway. I don’t see why Bello can’t build upon his strong starts and get outs for the Sox, as I like his Outs Recorded over 15.5 (-105) in tonight’s game, and I like the Sox through the First 5 innings on the 0.5 run line (-105) knowing Gonsales track record at Fenway.
Batting Props
With Rafael Devers going 0-4 in a quiet night on Tuesday, I expect him to bounce back on Wednesday against Gonsales, where he has recorded 3 hits, a walk and 2 strikeouts in his appearances. I like Devers to go over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) to get back on track.
Jarren Duran has been one of the sneaky good on base guys for the Sox since being called up from Worcester, as he’s batting .351 with a plus .400 on base percentage in his 94 at-at bats this season. Against lefties like Gonsales he has a small sample size with 19 ABs, but he’s tallied 6 hits and still has a .316 average against LHP. I like Duran to go over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130) tonight to continue his hot streak.
Since joining Boston on Apr. 17, Jarren Duran leads the majors outright in doubles (13), is 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts, and is batting .351 with a .991 OPS.
FanGraphs WAR Leaders Since Apr. 17:
Marcus Semien (1.9)
Jarren Duran (1.6)
Ronald Acuña Jr. (1.5)
Yandy DÃaz (1.5)— J.P. Long (@SoxNotes) May 17, 2023
Game Prediction
The Sox have proven to be better in front of the Boston faithful with a 14-11 home record. After 2 strong starts from young Brayan Bello, there is reason for optimism that he can get it done again tonight against a tough AL opponent, and the Red Sox bats may have found their stride again in Tuesday night’s win.
Red Sox ML (-130)
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