The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the third game of their four-game series. The Toronto Blue Jays have had a rough week so far. Things won’t be getting much easier on Wednesday, despite the Tuesday 20-1 blowout. The Jays will be sending out Yusei Kikuchi (5-1, 4.08 ERA) against Tampa Bay’s ace Shane McClanahan (7-0, 2.05 ERA). A matchup that most certainly is difficult given the Jays are coming off a slump followed by a single blowout win. In today’s Toronto Blue Jays betting preview, I’ll see if there’s anything worth playing and if so, suggest a wager.
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The @BlueJays become the first team to score 20 runs in a game this season! pic.twitter.com/2GypAOqz0G
— MLB (@MLB) May 24, 2023
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: At Rays 5/24
Don’t get me wrong, this pitching matchup is lopsided. Kikuchi has been just okay this year. He’s not a total train wreck. That said, Tampa doesn’t mind the matchup.
What’s interesting though is a lot of sharps seem to be fading the Rays. Even with the Rays having their ace on the mount.
Some sharps are buying in on the Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 run line. Others are being more aggressive by taking the Jays +175 money line.
I definitely understand why the sharps are leaning toward the Jays. As the odds sit, Toronto is showing +EV. Sharps love +EV, especially on capable teams like the Jays.
Toronto is capable?
I can hear it now, “Toronto isn’t capable. Have you watched them play over the last week?”
Yes, I have watched them. And no, the sharps don’t really care about what happened yesterday — though it’s hard to look past 20-1. Some might be weary to play them despite that. They might not go all-in. Nevertheless, most sharps play the number. As in the +EV. They’ll educate themselves on the risk and make their wagers accordingly. That said, most sharps try not to get sucked into the common narratives. They will lose a good chunk but they also win at an even bigger chunk. They ride the highs and the lows.
This is why they’ll play what pops up. Like the Jays in today’s game.
Is it worth tailing the sharps?
Yes, I personally think so in this spot. This could even be a good arbitrage situation too.
By that I mean, you can grab the Blue Jays money line pregame at +175 or better. Hope that they get a couple of runs across in the first inning (it’s a tall task, I know). Take the Rays run line in-game at +1.5 -110 or better and hope for a middle by Toronto winning by ONLY one run. Another possibility is to take the Rays in-game money line at odds of +200 or better and guarantee a profit on the night.
Remember though, if you go down this root you have to put the same amount on each bet. If you put 2 units on Toronto’s pregame money line, you have to put 2 units on Tampa Bay’s in-game money line. That way everything equals out.
The setup isn’t always there
There’s a scenario where Toronto doesn’t score in the top of the first and Tampa Bay scores in the bottom of the first. In that case, you’ll probably have to ride out the Toronto Blue Jays pregame bet. So, make sure you feel comfortable with that scenario if you’re trying to arbitrage.
I’m probably going to put 1 unit on the Jays pregame money line for sure. An hour or so before game time, I’ll decide if I want to take the arbitrage route if the market info makes sense and I can get a good setup in-game. Once again, I bet numbers and situations (some may call them “angles”). I don’t bet solely on a handicap of the game. In other words, I don’t follow public trends and market hype.
For example, I won’t blindly play Tampa Bay’s -1.5 run line just because McClanahan is on the mount.
The plays
- Toronto Blue Jays +175 or better money line (pregame)
- Tampa Bay Rays +200 or better money line (in-game if the right setup occurs)
If you can’t get the Rays in-game at odds of +200 or better before the fifth or sixth inning, I’d just ride the Toronto Blue Jays pregame money line bet. Even if it loses, you’ll be getting +EV. Those bets will win out in the long run.
Whatever you play, please bet responsibly. That’s all for today’s Toronto Blue Jays betting preview.
