Recap and Tonight’s Matchup
In our last Red Sox betting preview as we saw the Sox take on the Padres on May 19th, we ended up going a measly 1/5 on our game picks, fading the Sox on the moneyline in a game where Rafael Devers homered twice and the Sox took the win 6-1 after a strong start from James Paxton. Looking to bounce back today, the Red Sox (26-23, T-4th in AL East) take on the Angels (27-23, 3rd in AL West) in the final game of a 3-game set, with the Halos taking the first two. Game time is set for 9:38pm EST in Anaheim.
Lines and odds are courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook
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Opening lines and odds via Action Network
Betting Odds and Pitching Matchup (Line Movement?)
ML: BOS -120 (Opened at +105)
LAA +105 (Opened at -130)
Run Line: BOS -1.5 (+140)Â
LAA +1.5 (-165)
O/U: 9
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Starting Pitchers: James Paxton (1-0, 2.45) vs Tyler Anderson (1-0, 5.27)
Paxton vs. Anderson Props
Our last betting preview came on Friday the 19th where Paxton tossed 6 solid innings for the Sox against San Diego, allowing 5 hits, 1 run and striking out 5. The lone run he gave up was a solo shot from Fernando Tatis Jr., but other than that, the southpaw was solid in his second outing coming off injury, putting the Sox in great position to close the game out. Tyler Anderson, on the other hand, has pitched alright in the month of May after struggling through his 5 starts in April. He is not a big strikeout guy for the Halos, as he’s only fanned 27 batters through 42.2 innings this season. With a Sox lineup that strikes out 25% of the time vs LHP, I like Tyler Anderson under 4.5 Ks (-150), a mark where he’s hit the over in 2 of his 8 outings to start the year. For Paxton, I also like his under strikeouts at 5.5 (-110) as the Angels have struck out 22% of the time vs Lefties and have been putting the bat on the ball with a top 10 OPS (.777) vs LHP to start the year.
Hitting Props, Over/Under and Game Prediction
Some hitting props that I like for tonight favor both sides with this lefty-lefty matchup:
BOS: Rafael Devers to double (+400), Mastataka Yoshida to single (-125) and Connor Wong over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+110)
LAA: Mike Trout over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-125), Hunter Renfroe over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-140) and Gio Urshela to single (-145)
Over 9 Runs (-120)
This total hasn’t hit in the first two games of this set with stout pitching from both sides, but with the Red Sox and Angels (both top 11 in OPS vs LHP) getting on base vs lefties and these bullpens on short rest, there will be runs scored tonight. I like this game to go over, and it could go over quite quickly.
Red Sox at Angels
•James Paxton: (4-3/2.43 ERA vs. LAA) (2-2/2.41 ERA at Angel Stadium)
•Tyler Anderson: (4 IP/6 ER vs. BOS this season) (7.20 ERA at home this season)— Sean Basile (@SeanBazz12) May 24, 2023
Game Prediction: Red Sox ML (-130) and Run Line -1.5 (+140)
Back on April 15th the Red Sox got to Tyler Anderson behind a big day from Rafael Devers, as his pitching line finished: 4 IP, 8 Hits, 6 ER, 4 Walks and 2 Strikeouts. I believe that the Sox have the advantage on the mound tonight, as Paxton has looked solid through his first 2 starts of the year posting a 2.45 ERA and keeping the Sox in games. After scoring 1 run and dropping the first 2 games of the series to LAA, they are due for a big night on the offensive end, and they already have gotten to Anderson once. The Sox have shown they can keep the Angels off the board as well, allowing 2 runs on Monday and 4 last night. I like the Sox to bounce back and take 1 win in this series before heading to Arizona.
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