DFS Matchups to Target Monday 6/26 (Late Slate)

This article will cover the two late games, the Chicago White Sox in Los Angeles to take on the Angels and also the Washington Nationals making a cross-country trip to Seattle, the land of grunge and home to the Mariners. The main slate of earlier games is here. 

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Fantasy Baseball Rundown for Monday 6/26 (Late Slate)

White Sox (Cease, RHP – 4.22 ERA) @ Angels (Detmers, LHP – 4.02 ERA)

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• • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First reaction – this one seems like it could go either way — either pitcher’s duel or high-scoring affair. Dylan Cease came in second place in Cy Young voting last year but hit a rough patch between late April through the end of May where he gave up 26 earned runs over 7 starts and saw his ERA go from 2.73 on 4/22 up to 4.88 on 5/28. He’s been back to his old self in June, giving up just 6 earned runs in 4 starts and striking out 32 in 22.2 innings. Reid Detmers threw a no-hitter in 2022 and ended with a respectable 3.77 ERA. This season, he saw his ERA touch 5.15 as recently as 6/1, however, since then he’s pitched three straight games where he’s allowed 1 earned run or less and struck out exactly 8 hitters in each game while allowing just 10 hits over 18.2 IP.
    • • No splits really stand out here for either pitcher, but it’s worth noting that Cease has a somewhat higher ERA on the road (3.62/5.05 home/road) while Detmers has been somewhat better at home (3.79/4.31 home/road). Cease’s lefty/righty splits are fairly consistent (.237/.216), while somewhat surprisingly, the lefty Detmers has yielded a bit more to lefties than righties (.286/.242)
  • Targets
    • Shohei Ohtani – he’s 2-for-8 lifetime off of Cease, including a HR. He’s obviously having a great year, slashing .297/.623/1.001 and tied for the major league lead in HR with 25 long balls, but generally has more success versus RHP (.306 vs .274). Whether it’s RHP or LHP he averages an extra-base hit once per every 7 at-bats.
    • Luis Robert Jr – he’s got no history versus Detmers, however, he’s crushing lefties this year, going 21-for-57 (.368) off southpaws. He’s averaging around a HR per 11 ABs against lefties, while it’s around 14 ABs versus righties. He’s driving runs in at a decent clip too, with 42 RBI on the year.
  • Stack – the easy play here is to say Mike Trout with Ohtani, but he’s not really having a Trout-like year, and he isn’t really hot right now either. Hunter Renfroe, however, is batting .450 (9-for-20) over the last 7 days (although that includes a 5-for-5 outburst during the Angels’ throttling of the Rockies on Saturday) and likes to hit at home. He’s hitting .309 in Angels Stadium, with 9 of his 12 HRs coming there. He hits for average more against LHP, but he’s averaging an extra-base hit against RHP about every 8 at-bats, while it’s about 11 against LHP. That’s if you think Cease could yield results to multiple hitters. If you think the offense is going to come against Detmers, you could pair Andrew Vaughn with Luis Robert for a mini-stack. He’s hitting .261 (6-for-23) over the last 7 days, including 3 HRs. Eloy Jimenez has the same stats as Vaughn over the last 7 days, but Vaughn edges him out in SLG against LHP this season (.470 vs .421).
  • Pivot – for the Angels, Brandon Drury has been really good of late, slashing .337/.530/.901 in June, with 4 doubles, 4 HR, 15 RBI, and 10 runs scored. He actually has better numbers against righties too (.280 vs .254). For the White Sox, the pivot is probably Eloy. Jake Burger is second on the team in homers with 17 and has a higher SLG against LHP (.589), but he’s ice cold, with just 1 hit in his last 18 at-bats and hitting just .139 in June (10-for-72). Andrew Benintendi has been hitting the ball well and sits atop the Sox’s lineup, but isn’t going to give you much in the way of power.
  • Contrarian – the “contrarian” move has been laid out above, you just have to decide which side you’re on!
  • Value – If Mickey Moniak is in the lineup he can help, as long as a righty is on the mound. He’s hitting .337 on the season and .349 in June, but just make sure he’s playing. On the other side, Yasmani Grandal can help. He’s a really cheap option at catcher but can provide some pop. He’s got 17 extra-base hits on the year, with 3 HRs coming from the left side of the plate and 3 coming from the right. 

Nationals (Williams, RHP – 4.14 ERA) @ Mariners (Castillo, RHP – 2.89 ERA)

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• Over/Under: 8
• First reaction – at first glance this seems to tilt in the Mariners’ favor with Luis Castillo on the mound and the game being played in Seattle. Trevor Williams hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been good either. 
  • • Looking at splits, Williams has been worse on the road, with 3.89/4.42 home/road splits. He’s also allowed a higher average to lefties than righties, .293 vs .241, although the SLG split is pretty even (.471/.469). Castillo has been dominant at home, posting a 2.03 ERA at home versus 4.24 on the road.
• Targets
  • Eugenio Suarez – he’s got the highest batting average for a Mariners hitter over the last 7 days (.304, 7-for-23), and has seen Williams many times before. He’s 6-for-25 against Williams, including 3 HR and 5 walks. Note that Williams has struck him out 9 times though, so this is by no means a sure thing.
  • Cal Raleigh – Raleigh is actually tied with Suarez over the last 7 days (.304, 7-for-23). He’s got 11 HR on the year and after a dreadful start to June (0-for-21), he’s batted 12-for-37 (.324) since 6/13. He’s a switch hitter, but his batting average splits are even (.229/.228).
• Stack – the hope is you stack with Julio Rodriguez who can go out and collect a couple of hits, maybe a HR, and swipe a bag. Rodriguez is hitting much better at home, with .270/.208 home/road splits. Otherwise, you hope Teoscar Hernandez goes out and hits a bomb. He’s hitting .316 (24-for-76) in June. 
• Pivot – Ty France was an All-Star in 2022 and is hitting .313 (25-for-80) in June, so perhaps coming back into form. 
• Contrarian – really didn’t want to look at Nats hitters, but it had to be done. CJ Abrams has the highest average over the last 7 days (.417, 10-for-24), while Lane Thomas (.385, 10-for-26) has been pretty good too. Thomas actually has had a hit in 18 of 21 games in June, hitting .295 on the year with 13 HR. But that may be a product of luck. Jeimer Candelario is also hitting over .300 over the last 7 days, including a double, a pair of HR, and 6 RBI.
• Value – if Kolten Wong is playing he could help. He’ll be really cheap but has seen Williams a bunch with some success. He’s 8-for-21 (.381) off of him in his career, with a homer and a walk. He’s also NEVER struck out against him, which is amazing in 21 at-bats.

Betting Angle

Strider 9+ K/Verlander 6+ K parlay (+114 at FanDuel): Strider against the team that strikes out the most in the MLB, Verlander against another struggling offense.

Tigers @ Rangers under 9 runs (-114 at FanDuel): it just feels like if 9 runs will be scored, it will all have to come from Texas, and while they can surely do it, it’s not likely.

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