The sun is finally shining in northern Jersey after a few sopping wet days, so it looks like a great day for baseball. It looks like it will be HOT across the country with temperatures nearing triple digits in some areas, but that means balls flying further around the yards. Let’s see what’s on tap for some Thursday baseball, which includes quite a few daytime starts today!
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Matchups to Target
Shohei Ohtani
You already know Shohei Ohtani is good, so there isn’t much else to say about him at this point. If for some reason you still need some convincing as to why to use him, here it is: he’s in the midst of a 6-game hit streak, hitting .481 (13-for-27) during that stretch with a double, 2 triples, and 4 HR. He’s slashing .394/.919/.1.398 with 13 HR in June alone, and slashing .322/.683/1.083 against RHP on the season. Still not convinced? He’s 8-for-18 lifetime against Lance Lynn including a HR and just 3 K. Now, if you think the Lance Lynn who struck out 16 Seattle hitters a couple starts ago will show up fine, but he came back to earth his last time out and he’s allowing a .350/.655/1.057 line to lefthanded hitters, compared to .203/.332/.617 to righties. So, if somehow Super Lynn shows up, chances are his Kryptonite will be Kabut-Ohtani.
Luis Robert Jr.
Luis Robert Jr. was 0-for-4 Tuesday, so you knew he was going to have at least one hit Wednesday since he hasn’t gone 2 games in a row without a hit since the first two games in June. Robert has become a regular in this article because he’s been swinging a hot bat: for the month of June he’s hit .293, including 5 doubles, 10 HR, 15 RBI, 17 runs scored, and even stole a couple bases. Not only has Robert become a regular due to his hot hitting, it’s his destruction of left-handed pitching that has kept him a regular. So no surprise here, he faces the left-handed Patrick Sandoval on Thursday. “Lu-Bob” is slashing .367/.767/1.208 vs LHP this season (.292/.509/.801 vs RHP) and he’s 3-for-3 in his career against Patrick Sandoval (no XBH, no K). Sandoval had a decent game 6/16 against the Royals where he allowed 4 hits and no earned runs, but despite that, for the entirety of the month he’s pitched 20.1 innings, yielding 14 earned runs (6.20 ERA) on 32 hits (.324 opponent batting average) across 4 starts.
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman collected his 2000th career hit Sunday night and it looks like it could be the beginning of a hot streak again. He’s hitting .317 on the year (5th in the MLB), is 5-for-14 over his last 3 three games, and he’s reached base safely in 17 of his last 18 games. He’s 4-for-14 in his career off of Chase Anderson, including a double and a home run plus a couple walks, so not exactly dominating the matchup, but in those 16 plate appearances Anderson has failed to strike Freeman out even once. Coupled with the fact that Anderson has gotten absolutely shelled his last 2 outings and pretty much all of June (32 hits, 24 earned runs, 10 home runs, 9 walks, 18 K across 21.1 innings in 5 June starts; 10.13 June ERA), this doesn’t bode well for Anderson’s chances against Freeman. Oh and, lest we forget, the game is being played in the most hitter friendly field in the MLB, Coors Field, which is upping the chances of hits, home runs, and runs scored according to BallparkPal.com.
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos continued to stuff the stat sheet on Wednesday, with a 2-for-5 night that included a double, a HR, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. He’s slashing .371/.607/1.015 in June with 6 doubles, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 12 runs scored, and 3 stolen bases. He faces Kyle Hendricks Thursday who has been pretty good since his return in late May, but Castellanos knows what is in Hendricks’ quiver. Castellanos is 5-for-16 with a HR and a walk against Hendricks, so he’s had some success. And sticking with the theme of these matchups, in 17 plate appearances Hendricks has yet to strike out Castellanos, so he’s able to put the bat on the ball. Hitting conditions look pretty good in Wrigley, so look for Castellanos to continue the hot hitting.Â
Speculative Targets
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve is not the prototypical player that makes it to this list. He’s not in the midst of a prolonged hit streak (let it be noted, however, he’s hit in two straight after last night and is 5-for-8 in those 2 games including a double and a HR). He’s not crushing it in June (17-for-68, .250). What he’s got going for him is Adam Wainwright. Waino hasn’t been good this year and last week’s start in London was no different (3 IP, 11 hits, 7 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K). Altuve has seen him a bunch in his career, 17 times to be exact. Altuve has just 4 hits and a walk in those plate appearances, but in keeping with the theme, Waino has struck him out just once. Altuve is slashing .321/.551/.977 against RHP this year, and Waino likely won’t be striking him out unless the veteran changes something up because clearly what he’s doing this season isn’t working, so look for Altuve to put the ball in play today and make things happen.
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez is one of those hitters you can pencil in your lineup and assume production on a nightly basis. In June he’s slashing .340/.660/1.065 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 11 walks, 21 runs scored, and three stolen bases. On the season he’s walked 35 times and struck out 30 times. Read that again. He’s walking more than he’s striking out! Other than maybe Juan Soto that does not happen in today’s game. And if not for an anomaly of game in April where he struck out all 4 times, those numbers would look even better. Ramirez takes on Zack Greinke and the Royals Thursday, and J-Ram is just 3-for-16 off of Greinke in his career. Buuuuut… yep, you guessed it, he has only struck out once against Greinke. Greinke very well may end up in the Hall of Fame one day, but not because of his 2023 season, where he’s posted a 5.31 ERA in 16 starts and struck out 61 in 81.1 IP. Last time out he went 4.2 IP and gave up 7 earned on 9 hits. Greinke does have the benefit of pitching in cavernous Kauffman Stadium today, however, that may be moot as the thermometer is supposed to touch 100 degrees, meaning the balls are going to be traveling further than normal today, so expect Greinke to be sweating a little more than normal too.
Stacks to Consider
Castellanos/Harper/Marsh
We already talked about Castellanos. Harper is ice cold (2 for his last 20), but the cold streaks usually are followed by hot streaks, right? He’s slashing .333/.468/.925 against RHP this season, and he’s got the history against Hendricks: 8-for-25, with a double, a HR, and 5 walks. Who’s the third in your stack? Brandon Marsh. He’s 12-for-20 over his last 6 games, including 3 doubles, 2 HR, 5 RBI, and 5 runs scored. He’s also slashing .307/.500/.898 against RHP this season.
Ramirez/Naylor
This is a “mini-stack” with Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. Naylor’s been hitting all season and quietly has the 5th most RBI in the MLB (58). He is in the midst of a 5-game hit streak, going 7-for-21 (.333) over that stretch, and is slashing .368/.526/.918 in June. He has seen Greinke a few times, going 1-for-5 off of him.
Other games to consider stacking
Dodgers @ Rockies has the highest over/under run total at 12. We already talked about Freeman, but you could pair with the other obvious power bats in the lineup: J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and Mookie Betts. The Rays @ D-backs is high at 10 runs, so you could look at Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, and Ketel Marte, or on the other side, Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe, and Manny Margot are all batting over .300 the last 7 days. You can always stack Rangers, and this game is against Detroit’s pitching staff. The last one might be Brewers @ Mets where Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have had success against Adrian Houser, then add in Francisco Lindor who has been hot lately.
Betting Angle
Phillies F5 ML (-128 at FanDuel): with the success against Hendricks and other points made above, I thought this line would be lower, but at -128 it seems too good to pass up.
Dodgers F5 run line -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel): if you think the youngster Sheehan can have another nice outing, the Dodgers should chase Anderson early (see what I did there?) and score some runs.Â
Ohtani/Robert/Marsh hit parlay (+165 at FanDuel): why I like these guys is outlined above!
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