On Sunday’s Phillies Betting Preview, we had the under 9.5 and a SGP of the Phillies and the alt under 8.5. After going under their total in seven straight games, Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler wasn’t sharp, but the Phils bats woke up, winning 7-6.
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Nationals (+145) vs. Phillies (-175) O/U 9
The Washington Nationals (32-48) come into Philadelphia for the weekend to take on the Phillies (43-37). The first pitch is slated for 6:05 p.m. Friday night.
Nationals Pitching and Offense
The Nats will trot out RHP Josiah Gray (5-6 3.43) for the first game of the series. In the words of Dean Pritchard’s assistant in “Old School”, Gray is “quite an anomaly”. Gray’s ERA is the lowest of his career, by almost two full runs. Yet his peripheral stats all tell a different story, as his WHIP (1.399), Walks/9 IP (4.2), and BABIP (.284) are all career lows. While his ERA is very respectable, his xFIP number (4.80) would indicate a drastic change is going to happen.
Josiah’s has been equally as rocky over the past 5 starts. He’s surrendered 4 or more runs in three of those games, yet his W/L record is 1-1. One thing that has been constant was the long ball, as he served up six gopher balls in 27 2/3 innings.
Washington’s offense is also a bit of an enigma. Their team batting average of .261 is 7th in the Majors, yet their runs per game of 4.16 is also seventh in the Majors…from the bottom! They have the second-lowest totals in home runs at 64, only Cleveland at 53 is below them. They don’t steal bases (43) but also don’t strike out much, as they lead the league in the fewest whiffs at 562.
Phillies Pitching and Offense
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Philadelphia counters with LHP Cristopher Sanchez (0-1 4.05). Sanchez is almost the polar opposite of Gray. While is ERA isn’t great at 4.05, his xFIP is a very solid 3.52. His WHIP of 1.05 is the lowest since he was in single-A ball. The only slightly concerning mark is the average exit velocity, which is 91.2 mph, over 4 mph higher than his career average.
The Phillies’ inconsistency in the offensive department has been maddening, all season. Over the past 10 games, they’re hitting .236 as a team, only averaging 3.9 runs per game. This lack of offense hasn’t hurt their record, however, as they’re 7-3 over the last 10 and 18-7 in the month of June.
Do you know a Philly fan that was bemoaning the team, saying they sucked, yada, yada, yada? Well, kindly inform them that after 80 games this year, they’re one game better than the 42-38 record they had last year.
The Wager
As mentioned above, last year’s Phillies didn’t have a great season but were able to sneak into the playoffs, in large part to teams like the cellar dwellers, like the Nats and Marlins. The Phillies had a record of 16-3 against their NL East foes. In the last ten games, the Phils have a record of 8-2, with every win by 2 or more runs. I’ll ride that streak. Phillies -1.5 run line +105 at BetMGM for 3 units.
Many of the Phillies have home runs off of Gray, but two of them have multiple dingers. I’m putting a unit on Kyle Schwarber and on Nick Castellanos to go yard
Bets and Season Record
Pick:Â Phillies -1.5 run line +105 (3 units)
Props:Â Kyle Schwarber- Home Run +215 1 unit
Nick Castallenos- Home Run +425 1 unit
Season Record:
Up 18.5 units (+$1850)
