Hopefully, everyone had a happy and safe Fourth of July, and you had plenty of James Outman, Ozzie Albies, or some Marlins in your lineups! With a full slate of action Wednesday there’s plenty to pick from and below are the players or stacks you should be targeting.
Matchups to Target
Matt Olson
Olson didn’t get in on the action Tuesday, with himself and Michael Harris being the only Braves starters to be held without a hit in the extra innings loss to the Guardians. However, that’s just bad news for Cal Quantrill, because now Olson is due. Olson leads the National League in HR with 28 and typically thrives against right-handed pitching. He’s slashing .264/.636/1.021 against RHP versus .205/.375/.643 against LHP, and 25 of his 28 HR have come off RHP. There is a tiny bit of history here too: Olson is 1-for-3 off of Quantrill lifetime, with zero strikeouts, while the lone hit was a double. Quantrill has also issued Olson a few free passes as well, walking him 3 times in Olson’s 6 plate appearances.
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Eloy Jimenez
Jimenez is on a nice little hot streak right now, collecting a hit in 7 straight games and going 13-for-29 (.448) during that stretch with 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, and 5 runs scored. He’s collected 2 hits in each of the last 3 games and 5 of the 7 games during this streak have been multi-hit efforts. Jimenez has seen his counterpart Jose Berrios quite a bit in his career, going 9-for-26 (.346) against him with a double and an HR. Berrios has been fairly good this year (3.74 ERA, .243 OBA), but has pitched worse on the road (4.30, .260) than at home (2.98, .220). Additionally, as my colleague here at GTS points out, ERA doesn’t paint the whole picture and xFIP may be more telling. Berrios is pitching to a 4.00 xFIP this season which is considered borderline “below average.” Guaranteed Rate Field is also boasting the highest HR boost based on park factors today according to BallparkPal.com.
Justin Turner
Turner has a mini 4-game hit streak going, during which he’s gone 7-for-16 (.437) with a double, 2 HR, 6 RBI, and 5 runs scored. He squares off against the Rangers’ Jon Gray today who has been good based on ERA alone (3.21), however — like Berrios above — has a much worse xFIP of 4.46. Not only is an xFIP of 4.46 “below average,” it is actually considered “poor.” The only tier below that is “awful” which includes xFIP’s 4.70 and higher. Turner has seen Gray quite often, going 13-for-39 (.333) off of him in his career, with 3 doubles, 2 HR, and a walk. Notably, in 40 plate appearances against Gray, Turner has struck out just 6 times.
Values
Ian Happ
Happ faces Adrian Houser today and in 13 plate appearances, Happ has yet to strike out against him. Happ has gone 3-for-10 off Houser including 2 doubles and 3 walks. After homering twice in the first game of the London Series back on 6/24, Happ ended June on an 0-for-15 streak. He’s got a hit in 3 straight in July now though so he might be righting the ship. He could be a value play today for DFS and allow you to use funds elsewhere.
Jean Segura
As with Happ, Segura is a value play that would save you money in your lineups. He’s here because of the history he’s got against the opposing pitcher, Steven Matz. He’s 9-for-18 (.500) in his career off of Matz which includes 4 doubles, a triple, and 2 HR. Segura has also hit safely in 7 of his last 8 games, adding 4 walks during that stretch. The winless Matz (0-7) is sporting a 4.92 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the season (and 4.14 xFIP if you’re wondering).
DFS Stacks to Consider
Cardinals v Bryan Hoeing
Hoeing hasn’t been terrible this season, however, he was shelled his last time out by the Braves (3.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K). The Cardinals are by no means the Braves but they may be looking to avenge the 15-2 beatdown that the Marlins gave them yesterday. Look for the hot-hitting Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras plus the talented Paul Goldschmidt to hit Hoeing hard today.
Braves v Cal Quantrill
We outlined the case for Matt Olson above, but the hot-hitting Braves should make quick work of Cal Quantrill. Who else should we use though? There aren’t any real weak spots in this lineup and there isn’t a ton of history to go off of, so we look to Quantrill’s splits and see that lefties slash .280/.486/.875 off of him while righties slash .288/.390/.707. The average is pretty much the same, but the power appears to come from lefties. So look for the scorching Ozzie Albies and lefty Michael Harris II to contribute to Quantrill’s demise. FYI, Albies has seen Quantrill a handful of times with some success (2-for-5, 1 2B, 1 3B).Â
Other considerations
Look for the Dodgers’ lefties hitting well of late (Freeman/Heyward/Peralta/Muncy) to chase Osvaldo Bido, plus of course the righty Mookie Betts (batting .550 over the last 7 days). Outside of the Braves @ Guardians game, the Reds @ Nationals and Rangers @ Red Sox have the highest over/under at 9.5 runs, so look for the likes of McLain/Steer/Cruz and Semien/Jung/Garcia to power these offenses. Verdugo could also provide you a mini stack for the Red Sox since he’s 4-for-11 off of Gray including a HR.
Betting Angle
Braves and Tigers F5 ML parlay (+120 on FanDuel): you could take the Braves for F5 Result (-130), but taking the ML (-170) and pairing with the Tigers gets you some more juice at +120. Look for the more deserving Tigers All-Star Eduardo Rodriguez to hold the A’s offense down, at least through the first five innings.
Olson/Jimenez to get a hit parlay (-109): the case for both outlined above!
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