Well that was a bit of a letdown with two of our three “targets” from yesterday going hitless. Of course ol’ reliable came through (Josh Naylor) along with many of the more obvious players going deep, some even twice (looking at you Olson, Machado, Tatis, Soto, Guerrero, Devers, Bellinger, Seager, Garcia…). But today is a new day! And there are plenty of options in this main slate for Saturday 7/15.
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Matchups to Target
Manny Machado (Game 2)
Machado was one of four Padres to go deep yesterday and he’s set up to have another big day at the plate. The park conditions look great according to BallparkPal.com and lefty Ranger Suarez is on the bump for Philadelphia. Suarez has not been great in his home confines, with a 5.92/2.39 home/road ERA split. His slashline to opposing right-handed batters is .272/.341/.772 versus .195/.293/.507 against lefties. Machado feasts on LHP, with a .329/.500/.875 slashline against southpaws versus .235/.452/.736 against righties. Just make sure he’s in the lineup since it’s a doubleheader and some players may get rest, especially in this heat.
Nick Castellanos (Game 2)
Castellanos had a stellar first half that earned him an All-Star appearance, batting .301 and collecting over 100 hits along the way. He even got a hit in the All-Star game and another in Friday’s loss to the Padres, so it seems he hasn’t missed a beat. The Phillies draw lefty Ryan Weathers in the second game of the doubleheader and Weathers has been very hittable this season (6.08 ERA, 5.17 xFIP which is considered “awful”). Weathers is generous to righties, allowing a .333/.553/.947 slashline to them versus .242/.333/.631 to lefties. As with Machado, make sure Castellanos is playing in the second game.
Wander Franco (Game 2)
Despite a great first half Franco has been absent from these “Target” lists, but that changes today! In the second game of the doubleheader Saturday, LHP Cole Ragans will make his Royals debut. Ragans has mainly been a reliever so it’s unlikely he’ll go more than a couple innings, but that means Franco will also get to mash against the putrid Royals’ bullpen. Ragans is a lefty and Franco has a .300/.457/.824 slashline against LHP, but he’ll likely face some RHP today too and he’s slashing .272/.460/.790 against them. Franco has 21 doubles, 4 triples, and 11 HR on the year to go along with 44 RBI, 49 runs scored, and 28 stolen bases, so he can contribute across categories.
Value Play
Joey Wendle
Wendle has made this list before and he’s back here again due to his success against his opponent, Kyle Gibson. Wendle is 10-for-26 (.385) against him which is pretty good, but what caught my eye is that 7 of those 10 hits went for extra bases (including 1 HR). Gibson has a 4.60 ERA on the year and a 1.31 WHIP (plus a “poor” 4.40 xFIP). Gibson is also allowing lefties to slash .284/.460/.802 versus .238/.356/.657 to righties. Wendle is batting a respectable .277 on the season, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games (7-for-21, .333).
Dart Throw
Ji-Man Choi
Full disclosure, Choi might only be on this list because I’m mad I missed him yesterday. He was one of those guys I thought I’d use to fill out my lineup since he was a lefty going against Darvish. I had him in there, then I took him out, so of course he hits a HR. Isn’t that the way it always goes? Anyway, maybe there’s a hot hand to ride here. He hit a HR in his last game before the AS break too and now has hits in three straight games (4-for-11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R). He’s also 3-for-7 in his career against SF righty Alex Cobb, with a double and just 1 K in eight plate appearances. Cobb has been worse away from home, posting a 4.50 ERA on the road (1.24 at home) and allowing left-handed batters to slash .301/.370/.731 (.254/.400/.681 to RHB). Or heck, maybe just play our guy Jack Suwinski again.
Betting Angle
SD @ PHI Game 2 Over : as long as the heat doesn’t wear them down, these pitchers should allow these two offenses to feast.
TEX : my affinity for Josh Naylor and company ends with left-handed pitchers, even bad ones. J-Ram and Naylor have poor numbers against LHP and the likes of Rosario/Gimenez/Straw don’t have what it takes to keep up with the Texas offense.
Castellanos/Machado to get a hit parlay (-124 at FanDuel)
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