“Guess what day it is… Hump Day! Woop woop!” And since it’s Wednesday that means early games, middle of the day games, evening games, and late games. We’ll focus on the Main Slate here (7:07 PM EST to 9:40 PM EST), and thankfully that does NOT include the Phillies’ game. Anytime I pick a batter to target for the Phils they seem to go hitless, so we don’t have to fret about that today. If you DO want info on that game though our own Joey House has you covered in his betting preview.
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Matchups to Target
Austin Riley
Being a Braves fan you know that when Austin Riley gets hot, he really gets hot. Yesterday he went 3-for-5 with a double and 2 HR. A great day at the plate no doubt, but perhaps you anticipated some of that production to come against poor Zach Davies. However, according to BaseballSavant.com Riley’s last at-bat 7/17 against the White Sox’s Aaron Bummer was a 104.6 MPH groundout, and each of his batted balls yesterday including his groundout in the 3rd inning had more than a 100 MPH exit velocity. That makes 5 straight batted balls 100 MPH+. Looking back at his game logs, the last time he went on an exit velo run like this was around May 15th where his batting average sat at .245, and it lasted through June 8th where his average reached .281 — almost 40 points higher in a matter of a few weeks. Last season in July, Riley batted an absolutely scorching hot .423 (44-for-104, 15 2B, 11 HR), so this might just be when he starts rolling. We’ll see against the D-backs’ Ryne Nelson, who has a really good road ERA (2.68 vs 8.08 at home), but even though he gave up just 1 earned run his last time out during 5.2 innings of work, he allowed a whopping 9 hits (and the game before that he allowed 9 hits in 3 innings).
Cody Bellinger
Speaking of scorching hot, Bellinger was batting .253 back on June 24th and all he’s done since then hit safely in 18-of-20 games, raising his average all the way to .308 today. Of those 18 games where he recorded a hit, 11 of them were multi-hit efforts. He draws RHP Trevor Williams of the Nationals today who allows a .296/.480/.830 slashline to lefties (.249/.497/.806 to righties). Williams has a 4.42 ERA on the season, but a 5.09 xERA and 4.93 xFIP. Yuck. Look for Bellinger to do some damage off Williams or the Nats’ bullpen who has the worst ERA, has the highest WHIP, and has given up the most long balls in the entire National League this season.
Stacks to Consider
Highest O/U Game: Giants @ Reds – 10.5
The SF implied run total is 5.7 and the Reds is 5.5. Neither pitcher is very good (SF – Ross Stripling, CIN – Graham Ashcraft), but the Reds have the more stackable offense and Stripling is the third-cheapest pitcher on FanDuel (not a good thing if you’re banking on his success). Stripling has been generous to left-handed hitters (.324/.485/.880) and Cincy has plenty of them. Joey Votto has had a little success 2-for-6 against Stripling in his career and has 3 2B and 5 HR since July 3rd. Jake Fraley leads the Reds in RBI (56) and has the second-most HR on the team (13). TJ Friedl has the second highest BA on the squad at .288 and second-most SB with 16. He’ll also likely bat near the top of the order. Of course there’s Elly de la Cruz as well, but he’s mired in a 1-for-20 slump. Looking to the Giants side of the ledger, Wilmer Flores has been red hot, and has multi-position eligibility which allows for superb lineup flexibility due also in part because of his cheap price. Some of the higher projected owned options today include Michael Conforto (15%), Mike Yastrzemski (14%), and Joc Pederson (14%), but I may pass on those guys in favor of the likes of Patrick Bailey, Austin Slater, and Luis Matos, although they’ll likely be hitting in the lower part of the order. To his credit, Michael Conforto is 11-for-29 (.379) with 9 RBI and a couple SB over his last 7 games.
Highest Implied Run Totals
Braves (6.4) — it’s no surprise the Braves have the highest implied run total on the board and we already mentioned Austin Riley, but who else? Obviously you have Ronald Acuna Jr.and Matt Olson, but if you stack those 3 you’ll really need to save on pitching and find some real cheap hitters to round out your lineup. You could look to Michael Harris II instead who has been better since his early season struggles while giving you a stolen base threat, or Eddie Rosario who has been a sneaky source of power this year (just make sure he’s playing).
Mets (5.1) — the Mets face former Brave Touki Touissant Wednesday, but there isn’t a lot of history to go off of and the splits aren’t terribly revealing. You could be looking to use leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo along with Francisco Lindor, but note that Pete Alonso is batting just .122 (5-for-41) in July with just 2 HR. So if you’re looking for a hot bat to go along with some power (and probably at a cheap price), you could look to Francisco Alvarez. He’s batting .368 (14-for-38) in July with 7 HR and 13 RBI.
Tigers (4.6) — Detroit takes on KC and LHP Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbrough pitched well his last time out which was his first start off the IL, but prior to the IL stint Yarbrough had not been putting up good numbers. If you think Yarbrough continues his recent success then maybe this mini-stack isn’t for you, but if you’re like me and believes he turns back into a pumpkin, then look for Spencer Torkelson to continue his hot hitting (.283 in July, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR — 2 of which came Tuesday) and lefty specialist Jake Rogers to contribute. Rogers has 11 HR on the season, 7 of which have come in 54 ABs against LHP (4 in 116 ABs vs RHP). Andy Ibanez and Matt Vierling will likely be hitting near the top of the order if you wanted add a third bat. Note that Yarbrough is the cheapest priced pitcher on FanDuel not named Chase Silseth, which is an ominous sign (for him).Â
Start v Sit
Start Francisco Alvarez
As I mentioned above, Alvarez is hitting .368 (14-for-38) in July with 7 HR and 13 RBI. When the Mets get past Touissant they’ll face the Sox bullpen that is bottom-four in ERA, WHIP, and HR allowed in the AL.
Sit Salvador Perez
Salvy is dealing with a bit of a hamstring issue right now, but in July he’s hitting .303 (10-for-33) and is on a 5-game hit streak that includes a 4-for-4 game on 7/15. If he’s playing, he faces the Tigers’ Eduardo Rodriguez (2.70 ERA) who he is just 2-for-13 (.154) off of in his career with a pair of strikeouts.
Betting Angle
Toronto Moneyline : Yu Darvish bucked the trend his last time out, actually pitching well in a road start, but can he do it again? And Jose Berrios is much better at home.Â
Rodon ALT 5+K/Rodriguez ALT 5+K/Castillo ALT 7+K (+103 on FanDuel): conservative K totals for pitchers in decent matchups.
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