Well it’s Monday. Again. If you’ve got a case of the Monday’s, then maybe some DFS action is just what you need to shake those blues. Below are some options picked out just for you, so let’s get after it! Note these are for Monday’s Main/Late Slate.
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Matchups to Target
Christian Walker
Walker had a fantastic June (.347, 15 2B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 12 R, 3 SB) but has scuffled a bit in July (10-for-58, .172, 4 2B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 8 R, 3 SB). Over his last 6 games though he’s 7-for-22 (.318) with 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 R, and 5 BB. Monday he’ll face veteran Adam Wainwright, who will likely be headed to Cooperstown once he hangs it up, but he’s not going out on a high note — statistically speaking anyway. He’s got a 7.66 ERA and eye-popping 1.99 WHIP on the season. He’s been providing opportunities to both lefties and righties, both hitting north of .300 and both with sky-high OPS. As it pertains to Walker, the power-hitting right-handed hitter (RHH) is 4-for-9 off Waino lifetime, with a HR and ZERO strikeouts.Â
Freddie Freeman
In June Freeman showed us he’s merely human, batting a pedestrian .255 with 5 2B, 4 HR, 18 RBI, and 16 R, but so far in July he’s back to being an otherworldly hero sent to Planet Earth to destroy baseballs thrown within his perimeter. He’s slashing .369/.785/1.238 with 7 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 17 RBI, and 19 R, handily eclipsing June’s numbers already with 6 games left to go this month. There’s another Dodger with great career numbers against Berrios, but we’ll talk about him later on. Freeman has just 3 plate appearances against Berrios in his career, but he’s 1-for-3 off of him in his career and that lone hit was a HR. Berrios has actually been very good in his last 3 turns, but that ends Monday. Berrios has been more vulnerable in his road starts (2.85/3.84 home/road) and left-handed hitters (LHH) have had more success against him this season, and Freddie’s one of the best LHH there is.
Nolan Arenado
Arenado is in the midst of a 7-game hit streak, during which time he’s gone 12-for-28 with 2 2B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 3 R, and 2 BB. But he’s been doing it all month (and all year, really), batting .361 (26-for-72) in July with 8 2B, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 12 R, and 7 BB (.681 SLG, 1.09 OPS). Monday he squares off against the D-backs’ Ryne Nelson. In a couple of recent articles, I mentioned that Nelson had been “intriguingly effective” on the road; well, he’s not on the road and he’s been much, much worse at home. He’s got an 8.08 ERA at home, allowing a .357 opponent batting average that includes 65 hits (8 HR), 38 ER, 16 BB, and 24 K in 42.1 IP. For comparison, his road stats are 52 hits (8 HR), 19 ER, 14 BB, and 49 K in 64.0 IP. There’s no matchup history to go off of here, this is just a hot batter going against an ice-cold pitcher at his home ballpark.Â
Juan Soto
Soto has been kind of ‘meh’ in July, at least when you look at his batting average. But you know there’s more to Soto than batting average, as there are few – if any – in the game today that are as good at drawing a walk and getting on base. While he’s batting just .222 (14-for-63) in July, he’s got a .386 OBP and a .524 SLG which translates to a really good .909 OPS. His batting average notwithstanding, he’s got counting stats similar to others on this list for the month: 4 2B, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, and a ridiculous 18:14 walk-to-strikeout ratio. When you look at his splits he’s slashing .290/.576/1.019 against RHP versus .208/.330/.691 to LHP. He’s on this list because I think he takes advantage of the rookie RHP of the Pirates on the road making just his second start of the season — Quinn Priester. Looking back at his first start, he rolled through the first three innings unscathed, but as the hitters saw him for a second and third time they were able to get to the youngster, ultimately ending his day with a line of 5.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 K, 2 BB. Of the 7 hits given up, 5 were at the hands of lefty hitters. Soto and the Padres exploit the inexperienced righty Monday.
Value Plays
Randall Grichuk
Grichuk has hit safely in 8 of the 10 games he’s played this month and is currently riding a 7-game hit streak. During the streak he’s gone 10-for-25 (.400) with 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, and 6 R. He’ll matchup against the Nats’ LHP Patrick Corbin on Monday. Grichuk hits LHP well, slashing .338/.592/.989 against them, HOWEVER, he’s not had success in his career against Corbin (1-for-12, 1 BB, 4 K). Consider this a “regression to the mean” call here, where Corbin doesn’t dominate him forever, Grichuk picks up a couple hits off him Monday, and Grichuk’s numbers start to come more in line with his usual LHP success. There are plenty of Rockies with success against Corbin already though, so check out the stacks below!
William Contreras
Even after ending the last two games 0-for-8, Contreras is still hitting .358 (24-for-67) in the month of July with 6 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, and 9 R. He goes against the Reds’ Graham Ashcraft on Monday in Milwaukee (“pronounced ‘mill-e-wah-que’ which is Algonquin for ‘the good land'”). Contreras has seen Ashcraft before, going 4-for-6 against the RHP, with a double and a homer while not striking out at all. Contreras is a cheap option on FanDuel at the 1B/C position at $2900.
DFS Stacks to Consider
D-backs vs Adam Wainwright (7.66 ERA, 1.99 WHIP)
We mentioned Christian Walker above, but the hottest hitter on the D-backs is Ketel Marte. He’s hit safely in 11 of his last 13 games and is 11-for-29 (.379) over his last 7 games with 3 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, and 5 R. The history is on Wainwright’s side though, with Marte’s 0-for-12 lifetime off the veteran, but 2023 Waino is not vintage Waino. And what is a D-backs stack without the NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Corbin Carroll? He’s not hot, but he has the potential to go off in any given game and is always a threat on the basepaths. The other option is Geraldo Perdomo — he’s the leadoff man so has the potential for more at-bats and has been pretty good lately. He’s got 9 hits in his last 23 at-bats (.391) and has a .427/.814 SLG/OPS from the left side of the plate (.333/.694 from the right side).
Rockies vs Patrick Corbin (4.89 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
As I mentioned above there are a few hitters with success against Patrick Corbin that are absolutely usable/stackable on Monday, just make sure they’re playing. First up is CJ Cron who is one of the hotter Rockies hitters. He’s on a 6-game hit streak and has 4 HR in his last 5 games, but he’s battling a back issue that prevented him from playing over the weekend, so make sure he’s in the lineup Monday. He’s 4-for-14 (.286) off Corbin with a pair of doubles, a pair of walks, and 4 K. Kris Bryant is also dealing with a finger issue that held him out Sunday, but he’s 7-for-13 (.538) off Corbin in his career with a double, 3 BB, and 4 K. Elias Diaz is 7-for-19 (.368) off Corbin with a double, a walk, and 4 K. Lefty Ryan McMahon is 7-for-16 (.438) with a double, 0 BB, and 2 K. And switch-hitting Jurickson Profar is 3-for-5 (.600) with a double, a walk, and 0 K. You could mix and match based on your lineup needs, and none of these guys are likely very expensive, but my preference here would be Grichuk/Cron/Profar.
Other Options to Consider
Dodgers vs Jose Berrios (3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
We already mentioned Freeman, but Mookie Betts has seen Berrios a bunch in his career from his time in Boston. Betts is 7-for-16 (.438) off Berrios in his career, including 2 HR, 2 BB, and just 1 strikeout. This could just be a 2 player mini-stack, but if you’re looking some more pop LHH David Peralta has been good of late and will be a value play, or LHH Max Muncy who can give you the opportunity for a long-ball any given night, and sometimes he hits them in bunches.
Reds vs Colin Rea (4.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
The Reds are rolling right now, currently riding a 5-game win streak. Steady Matt McLain has been a big reason why, hitting .389 (7-for-18) over his last 6 games, including 2 HR, 5 RBI, and 7 R. He can hit both righties and lefties, so facing the bullpen shouldn’t be an issue (other than the Brewers’ bullpen has been good). The winning can also be attributed to newcomer Christian Encarnacion-Strand who is 7-for-20 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 5 R over his last 6 games. There are other options in this Cincy lineup, but for me, it might be leadoff (or 2-hole) man TJ Friedl. He’s 7-for-21 (.333) over his last 6 games with 2 doubles and a HR. He’s also got 16 stolen bases on the season so could be a contributor there too. Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley (and even Will Benson) can give you some additional power; unfortunately, you don’t know what you’re going to get out of Elly de la Cruz lately, he’s batting a lowly .150 (3-for-20) over his last 6 games.
Value DFS Pitcher
Logan Allen
There’s not much to like on this slate, but if he can give you some length the Guardians’ Logan Allen has been decent this year, and specifically his last time out. He went 5 innings, allowing just 1 hit while walking 1 and striking out 8. He’s got 71 K on the season in 67.1 IP, so he’ll give you a K per inning. He’s got a respectable 3.21 ERA to go along with a somewhat high 1.37 WHIP. The Royals hitters he’s faced before are a combined 3-for-13 off of him with 1 walk and 4 K.
Betting Angle
Rockies Moneyline : I’ll take my chances that the success of the Rockies against Corbin will be enough, even though some guy named Jake Bird is “starting” for the Rockies.
Diamondbacks Spread : I like Waino and wish him the best in his post-baseball career, but 2023 has not been kind and neither will the D-backs.
Arenado/Soto to get a hit parlay (+105): I like these matchups, just need each to get one hit for plus money.
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