Happy Friday and welcome to the weekend! When I scrolled the matchups for Friday my mouth started watering, partly due to the chicken taco I was eating, but also because – holy smokes – there are a lot of bad pitchers scheduled to throw pitches today. It was hard to whittle the list down, but I got you four hitters to target and a list of hitters that looked appealing, although perhaps a bit more speculative than based on solid matchup history.
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Matchups to Target
Christian Yelich
Outside of a slow April when he batted .228, Yelich has since picked up the pace, hitting .284 in May, .320 in June, and .333 in July. He’s 4-for-13 (.308) to begin August and has hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games. Actually, you have to go all the way back to June 4th and 5th to find back-to-back games where Yelich went hitless. Yelich faces the Pirates’ RHP Quinn Priester on Friday who has made just 3 starts in his career to date. He’s given up 7-4-5 runs in his starts, leading to 9.12 ERA to go along with his sky-high 1.72 WHIP. It’s a small sample size, but through his 3 starts he’s allowed left-handed hitters (LHH) to slash .314/.600/1.029 as opposed to .192/.538/.861 to right-handed hitters (RHH). This game has an O/U of 9 runs, which is one of the higher ones on the slate, with Milwaukee having a 5.2 implied run total, also one of the higher totals on the board.
Luis Robert Jr
Robert is not one of the hotter hitters right now, but for the season he’s got the fourth-most HR (29) and sixteenth-highest OPS (.871). What normally has put him on this list is when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher, and Friday night he’s doing just that. He’ll face the Guardians’ LHP Logan Allen who allows a .273/.439/.763 slashline to RHH, while just .196/.333/.650 to LHH. Robert has a .322/.609/.995 slashline against LHP versus .252/.536/.837 to RHP. And he’s seen Logan Allen before: he’s 5-for-9 (.556) with 2 doubles against the southpaw.
Freddie Freeman
I’ll spare you the talk about him being the hottest hitter on the planet (OK, one thing: he’s an astounding 12-for-17 (.705) over his last 4 games). He’s also here because of the success he’s had against opposing pitcher Yu Darvish. He’s 9-for-28 (.321) with 2 2B, 3 HR, and 3 BB against Darvish.
Ryan Mountcastle
Freeman and Mountcastle were on this list the other day and neither disappointed (Mountcastle was 2-for-2 with 2 BB and a SB). Mountcastle is one of the hotter hitters in the league right now too, going 13-for-20 (.650) with 4 doubles, a HR, 7 RBI, 6 R, 3 BB, and ZERO strikeouts (!!) over his last 6 games. He hits LHP well and Friday he gets the Mets’ LHP David Robertson who brings an uninspiring 5.92 ERA and 1.62 WHIP into the contest. Mountcastle slashes .351/.691/1.080 against LHP versus .226/.364/.630 against RHP. This game features one of the higher O/U totals on the slate at 9 runs.Â
Speculative DFS Plays
- Josh Naylor – you know I love Naylor against RHP. Friday he faces Mike Clevinger who faced them just days ago and only allowed 2 hits in 5 IP, but I don’t see Clevinger catching lightning in a bottle twice. His revenge-game narrative played out, now it’s time for the Guardians to take care of business.
- Bryson Stott – the Phillies take on the Royals Friday in Philly. Poor Jordan Lyles will bring his 2-12 record and 6.15 ERA into town and he’s been generous to LHH. So perhaps you take Schwarber here, but he’s actually seen Lyles before and struck out in half of his at-bats (4 of 8) which isn’t necessarily out of the ordinary for Scwharber, but I was looking for a safer bet and Stott has the highest batting average for a left-handed Phillies hitter over the last 7 days (.320). He may not provide the HR threat that Schwarber does, but he can get you a couple doubles, no problem. And I can’t take a chance on Harper again, he lets me down every time (so maybe this is a reverse-jinx?).
- Wander Franco – he’s 8-for-23 (.348) over the last 6 games with a triple, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 7 R, and a stolen base. He’ll face the Tigers’ Reese Olson on Friday in a game that has one of the higher O/U totals on the board at 9 runs.
- Bobby Witt Jr – up there on the heat index with Freddie Freeman and Ryan Mountcastle, Witt is batting .556 (15-for-27) over his last 6 games with 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 7 R, and 3 SB. He’ll face Aaron Nola who hasn’t been the ace the Phillies needed this season with a 4.43 ERA and allowing 24 HR in 22 starts. Great hitting conditions in Philly according to BallparkPal.com.
- Alex Verdugo – Toronto @ Boston features the highest O/U on the slate at 10.5. I’m going with Verdugo here who is facing the Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah. Manoah hasn’t been as horrendous as he was earlier in the season before he got sent down to the minors for a confidence boost, but he hasn’t been the 2022 All-Star version either. Boston has the second-highest implied run total of all Friday’s games at 6 runs, and Verdugo is 8-for-19 (.421) off Manoah lifetime with 2 2B and a HR. He’s also got a 6-game hit streak going, although note that it’s been just 1 hit in each of those games.
- Ryan McMahon – Wainwright was ok his last time out, but ultimately allowed 2 HR and 4 ER. McMahon is the best remaining power hitter for Colorado and is a lefty. Waino has been more generous to lefties this season and this game has a high O/U of 10 runs.Â
- Tyler O’Neill – as I just mentioned, this game has a high O/U, but it’s the Cardinals that are favored and have the third-highest implied run total at 5.9. Arenado and Goldy are just not hot right now, although with their pedigree that could change at any moment, but O’Neill has a higher batting average than both of them over the last 7 days and 2 HR to their combined 0 HR. He faces Chris Flexen who’s no stranger to giving up the long ball and runs; over his last 6 appearances he’s given up 18 hits, 13 ER, 5 HR, 5 BB (5 K), in 8.2 innings pitched.
- Trea Turner – good numbers against Lyles (5-for-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 K), but ice cold at the plate and not stealing bases at the rate you’d expect.
- David Peralta – good number against Darvish (10-for-28, 3 HR, 5 BB); if he’s playing he’d be a nice value and allow you to spend up elsewhere.
DFS Value Pitcher
Reid Detmers
For my money I’m probably taking Reid Detmers. He’s got a sterling 12.3 K per 9 rate (the highest of any pitcher on Friday), is a better pitcher at home (3.63 ERA vs 5.49 on the road), and is facing Seattle (a team that strikes out second-most in the MLB).Â
Betting Angle
COL @ STL Over : these pitchers just haven’t been good, although neither have these offenses, but these two teams have nothing to lose so will be swinging for the fences.
Angels Moneyline : with Luis Castillo on the mound for the Mariners I would have guessed the M’s would be favored, but it’s about even money, so maybe Vegas agrees that Detmers will give the Halos a chance here, and I’ll take it.
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