Week 20 of the fantasy baseball season is upon us. Monday kicks it off with a relatively small slate of games (10). Below are some hand-picked targets for you to build your DFS lineups around, plus a “value” DFS pitcher or two. Enjoy! (Update: Reds @ Angels has been postponed, so just 9 games today)
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Matchups to Target
Austin Riley
Riley isn’t quite as scorching hot as he was in the middle of the month, but he’s having a nice August so far, slashing .304/.557/.917 for the month. He’s got a little 4-game hit streak going and Monday he’ll see a familiar face on the mound in Atlanta. The Mets will roll with LHP David Peterson for the first few innings, who Riley has 20 plate appearances against. Riley is 8-for-18 (.444) with 3 doubles and 2 walks (5 K) in those 20 appearances. Peterson has a 5.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the season, but on the road he’s even worse, posting a 7.75 ERA away from Citi Field and allowing a .323 opponent batting average.Â
Jorge Soler
Soler will face off against Michael Wacha Monday in Petco Park. Wacha has been really good this season and Petco is not a hitter-friendly park, however, Soler’s career numbers against Wacha are just too good to ignore. He’s 9-for-17 (.529) against the veteran, which includes a double and FOUR home runs, plus 5 walks (5 K). Soler has reached base safely in 18 of his last 19 games, and has the 6th-most HR in the entire MLB this season with 32. As I mentioned, Wacha has been good and brings a 2.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP into the matchup, which are both career lows. He’s got a career ERA of 3.95 and career WHIP of 1.29 over 11 seasons (including 2023), so has the veteran finally figured it out at age 32 or is he due for regression? His xFIP of 4.63 suggests the latter; it’s almost at the 4.70 level which FanGraphs considers “Awful”.Â
Rafael Devers
Devers started off the season slow, batting .243 through the end of June, but in July he batted .354 and is slashing .328/.603/1.038 in August. He’s coming off a 3-game series against the Yankees in which he went 9-for-13 (.692), with a double, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, and 2 BB (1 K). Monday he’ll face RHP Christian Javier and the Astros in Houston. Javier has a 4.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the season, and looking closer at his splits he’s much more susceptible to giving up production to left-handed hitters (.275/.486/.829) than right-handed hitters (.185/.361/.618). We mentioned xFIP above when speaking about Wacha, and Javier’s is worse — well into the “Awful” range at 5.23.Â
Jose Altuve
If you are a pitcher you do not want to face Altuve right now. Since the start of the Tampa Bay series back on 7/28, Altuve is batting a ridiculous .429 (36-for-84) over his last 21 games, with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 20 R, 12 BB:14 K, and 8 SB. He’ll face LHP James Paxton on Monday, and he’s seen him A LOT. He’s 11-for-34 (.324) lifetime off the southpaw, with a double, 2 HR, and 6 BB (6 K). Paxton has been pretty good to date (and his xFIP suggests the same, if you’re wondering), but his home/road splits suggest he’d rather pitch at Fenway. He’s got a 3.94 ERA on the road, while at home he’s got a 2.58 ERA.
Manny Machado
Manny is the only one on this list that has no history versus the opposing pitcher. That is because he’s facing a former Padre in LHP Ryan Weathers. Weathers is making his first start as a Marlin (he had a relief appearance as a Marlin earlier this month – it did not go well) and of course it comes against his former team. You could avoid Machado if you buy into the “revenge game” narrative, however, I’m not so sure Weathers has the stuff to get revenge. He’s got a 6.89 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 2023. Machado eats left-handed pitchers for lunch, slashing .337/.558/.968 against them (.219/.420/.705 against RHP).
DFS Value Pitcher
Aaron Nola vs San Francisco ($9900 on FanDuel)
Ok, it’s not your normal value pick at this price, but there are three pitchers more expensive than Nola on FanDuel, so you’re saving a little. This slate seems to be littered with landmines at pitcher, and Nola hasn’t been a picture of consistency himself, but he’s at home where he has a 3.59 ERA (5.26 on the road). He faces a Giants team who strikes out third-most in the entire league (9.43 K/game) and third-most over the last 3 games (12 K/game). Nola has one of the higher K/9 rates on the slate at 9.9. The Giants were just in Atlanta for a tough 3-game series, which saw them get shut out, blow a game in the 8th, and almost blow another on Sunday. The Phillies lead the Wild Card and will look to their veteran to maintain their grasp on the top spot. The Phillies are favorites in this one according to Vegas (-148 on FD).
Javier Assad vs Detroit ($6000 on FanDuel)
Ok, if you want a real value play and you have the stomach for it, Assad has actually been pretty good his last two starts (just 4 starts on the season). In those last 2 starts he faced the Blue Jays on the road and the White Sox at home. Over a combined 13 innings he allowed just 8 hits and 3 earned runs, walking 3 and striking out 6. He gets Detroit on Monday who strike out at a decent clip (8.9 K/game) and the Cubs are favored in this one according to Vegas (-122 on FD).
Betting Angle
Cardinals @ Pirates Over Total Runs : The Pirates will start Bailey Falter (0-7, 4.86 ERA) and the Cardinals hitters should take care of business, but Drew Rom will make his big league debut for the Cardinals, so expect the Pirates hitters to do the same.Â
Rafael Devers Over 2 Total Bases : I like the matchup here and the reasoning is outlined above!
Tucker Davidson Over K’s : Strong K per 9 rate and it’s possible he’s going to pitch more than just an inning in this one. If I knew for certain he would be a value for DFS for sure against an A’s team that strikes out a ton.
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