Series Preview
The Boston Red Sox (24-20, 5th in AL East) and San Diego Padres (20-24, 4th in NL West) start their 3 game set in Southern California on Friday night.
The Red Sox, riding high off a 12-3 win vs the Mariners and winning the series on Wednesday have been playing better baseball after getting swept by the Cardinals this past weekend. The Padres have been one of baseballs big disappointments early into the season, with an explosive offense that hasn’t lived up to expectations so far, consists of all-star players such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado and big offseason signing Xander Bogaerts, the former Red Sox.
The series kicks off in San Diego at 9:40pm EST.
Lines and Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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May 19 Betting Lines and Projected Starters for the Series
BOS: +125
SD: -145
Run Line:
BOS +1.5 (-165)
SD -1.5 (+140)
O/U: 8
May 19: James Paxton (0-0, 3.60) vs Blake Snell (1-5, 4.61)
May 20: Chris Sale (3-2, 5.40) vs Joe Musgrove (1-1, 6.63)
May 21: Corey Kluber (2-5, 6.41) vs Michael Wacha (4-1, 4.06)
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Batting Props and Over/Under Prediction
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In this lefty-lefty matchup between James Paxton and Blake Snell, the Red Sox as a team are batting .267, and the Padres are batting .256 against LHP in 2023. There are some players that I like to get hits based upon their track record vs. lefties in tonight’s match-up, these include:
Justin Turner to get a hit (-175)
Xander Bogaerts over 1.5 Bases (+140)
Rob Refsnyder over 0.5 Bases (-160)
Home run bets include Xander Bogaerts and Kike Hernandez to hit a home run (both at +650).Â
With this being Paxton’s second start of the season against a high powered offense, and Blake Snells 4.22 home ERA against a peaking Red Sox offense, paired with a 5 ERA from the Sox pitching staff along with a 4 ERA from San Diego so far in 2023, I like this game to go over 8 runs (-110). There are big names in both lineups and not enough reliability on these starters and pitching staffs for this series opener to go under.
Game Picks
Over 8 Runs (-110)
Padres ML (-145)
The experience this season favors Snell on the hill, and I believe Paxton is in for a rough second outing against a star studded Padres lineup even without Manny Machado who is day-to-day with a fracture in his left hand. The Padres bullpen lead by Josh Hader and Nick Martinez has an advantage over the Sox bullpen staff, who don’t really have one go-to guy. I like the Padres to take the opener in a high scoring game.
