In Wednesday’s Phillies Betting Preview, we wagered on the Phillies as even money underdogs for three units and put two more units on Trea Turner to steal a base. Walker wasn’t his sharpest but settled down after the first 3 innings and didn’t give up a run the rest of the way. The Phillies had three stolen bases but sadly, Turner was not part of the heist.
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Phillies (+115) vs. Rays (-135) O/U 9
The series finale in this inter-league set goes off tonight at 6:40. With last night’s win, the Phils move to 45-39. Unfortunately, they were unable to make up any ground as the Braves won. Philadelphia is on an impressive run, winning their last 11 road games, their last away loss was on June 12th at Arizona.
Phillies Pitching and Batting
LHP Cristopher Sanchez (0-2 3.26)Â will try and complete the sweep against the American League East-leading Rays. He’s making his fifth start of the season and while he’s been effective, he’s been victimized by lack of run support. In none of his first four starts has the opposing team scored more than four runs for the whole game. His WHIP is a solid 1.138, averaging .9 home runs/9 innings, 1.9 walks/9, and 9.3 Ks/9.
The Phillies’ offense continues to strand runners at an alarming clip, 11 last night. However, they were 5-12 with runners in scoring position, so that didn’t come back to haunt them. They’re having some kind of tear over the last five games, hitting a collective .317 with 35 runs, 59 hits, eight round-trippers, and an OPS of .902. Scoring 19 runs will usually help elevate stats.
Rays Pitching and Batting
Because of a cluster of injuries to the Rays’ starting pitchers, they will be forced to use another bullpen start, sending RHP Shawn Armstrong (0-0 1.15). This is Armstrong’s second start of the season. His previous start saw him last two innings against Minnesota, where he gave up only one hit and no runs.
As hot as the Phillies have been offensively over the last five games, the Rays have been the polar opposite. Their record is 1-4 and a good reason is a .236 batting average, a .728 OPS, 29 runs, 41 hits but also eight homers.
The Wager
There was a longer-than-usual delay in releasing tonight’s lines because Tampa Bay had not announced a starter. The Rays used six different pitchers last night and are now faced with another “pitching-by-committee” scenario, I struggle to understand why the Phillies are dogs here. I think a couple of elements come into this equation. First, it is difficult to sweep an opponent and second, because of their blazing start, the Rays became somewhat of the public’s darling and as such, their lines have become slightly inflated. Either way, I’m taking the hotter team against a tired bullpen.
I’m also going right back to Turner for a steal. The Ray’s catchers have been poor at throwing out base runners this season, as evidenced by the Phils’ 3 SBs last night. The line on Turner is still +320 and I’ll have another go at that.
Bets and Season Record
Pick:Â Philadelphia +115Â 3 units
Prop:Â Trea Turner over .5 stolen bases +320 1 units (Bet365)
Season Record:
Up 5.8 units (+$580)
