The 48-43 Boston Red Sox have won five in a row and have found a new ace in Brayan Bello, who has not allowed more than three earned runs since his first start of the season. The Boston starter has started 14 games this season and allowed fewer than three earned runs in 11 contests. The Red Sox are 9-5 in games he has started this season, and he has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last five starts.
Wrigley Field hosts the Red Sox for another battle of historic franchises, as the 42-47 Chicago Cubs will possibly be sellers as we approach the 2023 trade deadline. Christopher Morel and Nico Hoerner. All-Star Justin Steele will start on Sunday afternoon as a part of a lengthy homestand for Chicago. This is the make-or-break time of the season for a Cubs team that is in the middle of the pack in offense and approaching the top 10 in pitching.
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs Pregame Analysis
The pitching matchup will be an interesting one on the north side of Chicago on Friday: Brayan Bello (RHP, 6-5, 3.04 ERA, 70 SO) against Kyle Hendricks (RHP, 3-3, 3.04 ERA, 32 SO). Bello’s changeup has been phenomenal this season:
Miss Rate Changeups (Starting Pitchers) 2023 Season
1. Shane McClanahan – 53.0%
2. Blake Snell – 50.3%
3. Brayan Bello – 43.4%
4. Patrick Sandoval – 39.8%
5. Matthew Boyd – 38.9% pic.twitter.com/4rhP7xvOsw— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) July 14, 2023
This is no doubt that Bello is putting up great numbers in 2023, and if he can continue to do so, he will give Boston a chance at the postseason. Meanwhile, Kyle Hendricks has a great changeup of his own:
Kyle Hendricks, Filthy 82mph Changeup…and Sword. ⚔️
And does his infamous, over-the-top Sword K Strut.
There's really no place in the game for that. pic.twitter.com/YYQ2V92i2C
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 4, 2023
That changeup was part of a six-inning five-strikeout performance in which he allowed just one earned run. The Red Sox will look to take advantage of a Hendricks that allowed 10 hits and 4 runs on July 9. However, the Cubs are 6-3 in Hendricks’ starts this season and have won both his starts in July.
All lines and odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Betting Info for Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
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Moneyline: Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Spread: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-155)
Total: Over 9 (-120)
Under 9 (+100)
Picks and Predictions for the Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
The Red Sox and Cubs have very similar run differentials this season, so it is interesting that the Cubs have been favored in Milwaukee recently but not at home against the Red Sox. The linemakers seem to be rating Bello very highly in a matchup of the hot Red Sox against a Cubs team with an offense that he can dominate. Let’s take the Red Sox run line here. Remember though that the Cubs have won two straight series, so this is not a slam dunk. Bello is the guy to back in this one as he should be pitching into the seventh yet again in his first start at Wrigley.
Final Game Prediction, Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
