There are three “early” games today starting at 6:40 PM EST that are not part of the Main Slate in DraftKings or FanDuel, but these games offer some intriguing matchups if you wanted to play an Early Only or All Day slate. We’ve isolated some matchups below that’ll help you with roster construction; if you’re looking for the rest of the games check out the Main Slate article.
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Matchups to Target
Aaron Judge
This section is usually reserved for hitters who are hot. Judge is not. In a 3-game weekend series with the Rays, Judge went 0-for-12 with EIGHT strikeouts. Oof. However, he was able to get off the schneid Monday, going 1-for-3 with a HR and 2 BB (2 more K as well). Tuesday he’ll face the Tigers’ LHP Tarik Skubal. Skubal’s splits show he’s actually been very good at home, 1.48 ERA vs 7.20 ERA away, but if we’re going to cherry pick stats to fit our narrative, then he’s much worse at night (7.43 ERA vs 2.61 ERA during the day). And Judge has seen Skubal before; he’s 2-for-5 with a double and a HR (0 BB:1 K). One last point: Judge has pretty good numbers either way, but his splits show he handles LHP a bit better than RHP (.283/.761/1.143 to LHP vs .263/.603/1.002 to RHP). Keep an eye on this one as rain is in the forecast for Detroit.
Trea Turner
Turner is on a 9-game hit streak and has recorded at least one hit in 20 of his last 22 games. During the 9-game hit streak he’s 13-for-38 (.342) with 2 2B, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R, 2 BB:8 K, and 1 SB. Angels LHP starter Tyler Anderson hasn’t gone 5+ innings in any of his last 3 starts, and despite giving up just 1 earned run and 3 hits his last time out, it took him 87 pitches to get through just 4.2 innings pitched. There’s a decent amount of history here too: Turner is 5-for-10 off of Anderson in his career, including a double and a triple (2 BB:2 K). The Phillies and Turner are looking to stay hot at home after winning 4 straight.
Brandon Lowe
If Sandy Alcantara was pitching like he did last year perhaps Lowe wouldn’t be listed here. But Alcantara is not, so Lowe is. In his last two starts (@ LAD, @ SD) Alcantara has pitched a total of 12.2 IP, allowing 14 hits (4 HR), 7 ER, 4 BB, and 10 K. He pitches a bit better at home than on the road, but he just faced this Rays team on 7/26. He was dominant, pitching a complete game while giving up just 5 hits and 1 ER (1 BB:7 K), but now the Rays have seen all his tricks and familiarity favors the offense (in my opinion). Lowe is one of the hotter Rays’ hitters right now, going 7-for-20 (.350) over the last 5 games, with a double and a homer. He’s familiar with Alcantara too, going 5-for-12 (.417) off of him in his career, including 3 doubles (2 BB:1 K).
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs Tyler Anderson (5.35 ERA, 1.53 WHIP)
This game has a pretty high O/U at 9.5 and the Phils are favored in this one. In addition to Turner, Brandon Marsh is riding a 10-game hit streak and Bryce Harper has a streak that stands at 7 games. Marsh is 2-for-2 while Harper has 2 doubles and 2 HR off of the Angels’ southpaw. Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos are near the top of every category though when it comes to Phillies hitters against LHP.
Tigers vs Michael King (3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
The Tigers are favored in this one and I’m skeptical of King’s numbers. If you are too, there’s not a lot of matchup history to go off of here, but Zach McKinstry and Kerry Carpenter are batting north of .300 over the last 7 days, while Andy Ibanez has the most HR over that span (2). For my money though I’ll probably lean towards the two young stars-in-the-making: Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. Tork leads the Tigers in HR (23) and RBI (68), while Greene has the 16th highest batting average in the league at .289.Â
DFS Value Pitchers
Aaron Civale ($9400 on FanDuel)
He’s had a good year, although much of it was with the Cleveland Guardians. He brings a 2.59 ERA into the matchup and a 1.10 WHIP. His K per 9 isn’t great (7.23), but there are ZERO Marlins hitters batting above .300 over the last 7 days and as I mentioned before, familiarity favors the offense, and most of the Marlins hitters have never seen Civale. Advantage: Civale. Also, this game has a low O/U of 7.5 so Vegas doesn’t see this one as being a high scoring affair.
Tarik Skubal ($8400 on FanDuel)
On the other hand, Skubal does have a nice K per 9 rate at 10.15. The Yankees have been striking out at a high rate over the last 3 games too (10.33) and struck out SIXTEEN times on Monday. Some guy named Reese Olson had 10 K’s in 4.1 IP. Yuck. Detroit is favored in this one so look for Skubal to be the benefactor.Â
Betting Angle
Tampa Bay Spread : should be low scoring and the Tampa offense is hotter than the Miami offense, even with Alcantara on the mound.
Tarik Skubal Over K’s : reasoning why outlined above!
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