In analyzing the Philadelphia Phillies and their opponents, we look to formulate a wagering strategy to maximize profit. While not every investment will be in the Phillies’ favor, what will be in YOUR favor is my life-long, in-depth knowledge of the National League East and MLB in general as we focus on the strongest selections. Let Gametime Sharks be your guide through the marathon that is better known as the Major League Baseball season.
Phillies Betting recap
If you’ve been a Philly fan as long as I have, you know that most Philadelphia teams never make a game easy. Yesterday, from a gambling perspective, was no different. Jumping to a 5-0 lead, Wheeler coughed up four runs in the 3rd to make it a 5-4, putting the Phillies -1.5 wager in jeopardy.
But Josh Harrison came through with a 7th-inning two-run blast and the Phils bullpen pitched four perfect innings to grab the 7-4 win and start off the gambling season with a nice profitable victory.
All odds, lines, and spreads are provided courtesy of BetMGM
BetMGM: It’s Time To Change The Game
Phillies -115 vs White Sox -105 Total 8.5
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RHP Taijuan Walker (1-1 4.20) takes the bump for the Phils today. Shaky in his first two starts, Walker settled down his last outing against the Reds, going six innings, allowing one earned run on four hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Control has been a bit of an issue, as he’s walked 10 in 15 innings.
However, even with those poor outings, his hard-hit percentage is 36.6%, three points lower than his previous two seasons. The average velocity of his fastball is 94.0 MPH, faster than three out of the last four seasons.
The White Sox’s RHP Mike Clevinger (2-0 2.20) is also making his fourth start of the young season. In two out of three of his appearances, he gave up zero runs, including his last outing against Baltimore, where he pitched six innings, surrendering one hit but walking five and received a no-decision.
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His surface stats look impressive, but there are some causes for concern in his sabermetrics. He has a groundball percentage of only 25%, meaning three out of four balls are hit in the air. This ranks 168th out of 174 qualified pitchers. The average ERA of those six pitchers below him is 6.12. In addition, the six pitchers below him have an average BABIP of .289 compared to Clevinger’s .267.
After getting one hit in the back half of yesterday’s doubleheader, the team batting average of the Phils fell to .286. I expect that to rise again against Clevinger, with the potential for multiple extra-base hits.
The White Sox pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.60. Their bullpen has a collective ERA of 5.72. After two very impressive outings, the Phillies have lowered theirs to a 5.48. The public might be fooled by Clevinger’s low ERA, but you won’t be.
I’m sticking with the Phillies 1.5 run line at +145 for 2 units.
Run line: 1-0 (+4.05 units)