Phillies betting and game recap
We recently invested in the Phillies to win by 1.5 runs with a +145 payout against the White Sox. Despite a rocky start for Taijuan Walker, he rebounded and allowed only three hits in the next 6.1 innings. The Phillies’ offense scored runs in the first, second, third, and fourth innings, Trea Turner went yard for the first time as Phillie, and they ultimately won the game and improving our season record to a perfect 2-0, up 8 units.
The Phillies hosted the 5-14 Colorado Rockies for a 4-game set the following day, but they were shut out 5-0 on Thursday evening. On Friday, Ryan McMahon hit a 3-run homer off Aaron Nola in the first inning. However, Nola bounced back and allowed only one more hit over seven innings. The Phillies scored in the 4th, 7th, and 8th innings, ending the game with a win and moving to three games under .500.
All lines and odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
BetMGM: It’s Time to Change the Game
Colorado +150 Philadelphia -185 O/U 10.5
Taking the mound for Colorado is LHP Kyle Freeland (2-1 3.80 ERA), with a WHIP of 1.26 and 12 strikeouts to six walks. A pitcher with a career 4.26 ERA (pitching in Coors Filed will do that to ya), Freeland had been lights out in his first 3 starts, compiling an ERA of 0.96 and a 2-0 record. However, he was lit up by the Pittsburgh Pirates for nine runs, seven earned in two and two-thirds innings.
There are a few disturbing trends that Freeland has displayed so far. First off, the maximum velocity on his four-seam fastball is down almost 3 MPH, yet he’s throwing it more than he has for the past three seasons. Also, while the maximum exit velocity of his batted balls is down significantly from his career (115.2 mph last year to 109.0 mph this year), the AVERAGE exit velocity has increased by over 0.5 mph.
These indicators suggest that eventually, his batted balls are exiting faster, increasing the potential of extra-base hits and home runs. It would be logical to think that some of his high career numbers are due to the fact that Freeland’s home park is Coors. While that can certainly explain a slightly elevated HR/9 mark, he gets hit just as hard away from Coors as he does in Colorado.
The last game he pitched against Pittsburgh, while it was a home contest, is just the beginning of his regression to his mean. I’m not predicting he’ll give up another nine runs, but I think the Phils strong batting will perform very well.
On the Philly side, LHP Cristopher Sanchez makes his 2023 debut. In his 22-game (4 started) big league career, he has a record of 3-2 with a 5.47 ERA. He is a good ground ball pitcher who doesn’t throw very hard. Because of such, he’s only given up four home runs in 41 innings pitched, but his BABIP is a career .312.
All of this boils down to there should be plenty of runs to go around. The wind is blowing out to left center at around 24 mph. Even though the total is rather high at 10.5, I don’t think it will be a problem for both teams to go north of that.
PICK: Colorado/Phily over 10.5 runs 2 UNITS
Run Line: 2-0 (+8 units)