This first round Stanley Cup playoff series will be decided tonight.
It’s fait accompli.
Should the Oilers prevail, they will head back to Alberta elated, poised to reclaim the series lead.
A defeat, however, will cripple Edmonton’s belief that lifting Lord Stanley this summer is likely.
Puck drop is slated for 9:08 PM Eastern Time (6:08 PM Pacific) in downtown Los Angeles.
All odds, lines, and spreads are provided courtesy of BetMGM.
Posted Betting Lines (listed as of article post time)
Edmonton: -1.5 ATS (+150), -160 ML
LA: +1.5 ATS (-185), +135 ML
Total: O 6.5 (-105) / U 6.5 (-115)
Profit focused Picks for Oilers vs Kings Game 4
Just like a playoff hockey series, betting involves ups and downs, wins and losses, and streaks of hot and cold performance. Securing profit at any point, especially over an extended period of time, typically depends on extracting as much value as possible from each wager placed. So let’s talk about the value in this game.
Kings to WIN (Moneyline, +135)
Pressure is a powerful force in the Stanley Cup playoffs, as in life, and the group that can best leverage it’s utility will find victory in this pivotal post-season tilt.
The Oilers enter Game 4 on thin ice; the Kings are well aware.
Expect the experience and leadership in LA’s dressing room to showcase itself tonight.
The Kings roster boasts a bounty playoff studs: Anze Kopitar (8th post-season), Drew Doughty (8th post-season), Alex Edler (10th post-season), Phillip Danault (5th post-season) and Viktor Arvidsson (7th post-season). All five have reached the Stanley Cup Final at least once in their playoff careers.
Composure comes from climbing the mountain and the Kings have shown more of it through the first three games of this series.
Despite being out-played in every game, Los Angeles is the club in position to put this series in a sleeper-hold. And that’s where the value lies tonight, with the team playing at home, aware of what’s in front of it, with the quality to seize such an opportunity.
With a payback around +135, the odds imply the Kings have only a 45% chance of winning this hockey game. Considering the venue, the set-up, and the fact that the Kings have yet to play their best game, the idea of backing Edmonton around -160 in a must-win situation does not offer nearly enough value in this spot when weighed against the alternative.
For those who favor statistical considerations, note this: The Kings are one season removed from winning Game 4 – at home – against the Oilers, 4-0. That game represented Los Angeles’ best performance of the series, outshooting its opponent 46-31, winning 56% of the face-offs, blocking 19 shot attempts and keeping a clean-sheet despite taking three penalties and going 0/3 on its own man advantages.
While that exact result is not likely, a Kings victory in Game 4 tonight will not surprise.
Through the first three games of the series, the Oilers have outshot the Kings in the first period 25-16, 45-31 in the second, and overall 117-90 (+27). Edmonton is 4/8 on the PP, 1st in the SCP by percentage, while the Kings are 4/15, ranking 6th.
What do those stats really say?
For one, the Kings have displayed more discipline. Two, at even-strength, Los Angeles is solid. Both teams have scored four times 5 on 5, while the Kings have a marker at 4 on 4. Overall, 9 goals have been scored by each team so far in this series and tonight’s contest could serve to break the levy.
Game to play OVER the Total (Over 6.5, -105)
Correlation can identify opportunities and there’s certainly one here with the total lined at 6.5 goals for tonight’s Game 4 at Crypto.com Arena.
Tight is not the way either team wants to wage this affair; accordingly, expect more precision passing and shooting tonight, which should generate high-danger chances, yielding more goals than the series has seen thus far.
Los Angeles leaned hard on its defensive process down the stretch of the regular season but over the course of the full campaign the Kings played plenty of barn-burners. Thus, it should not serve as a shock if the goal lamps are lit early and often in Game Four.
These plays are selected in light of their correlated expectation.
Los Angeles Kings 1st Period Moneyline +110
Money Line and Totals (including OT):
Kings to WIN and OVER 4.5 goals +180
Trevor Moore, Anytime Goalscorer +350
Alex Iafallo, Anytime Goalscorer +375
Joonas Korpisalo, Over 30.5 Saves -120
Stuart Skinner, Over 2.5 Goals Against -120