While Cup dreams were crushed for the Kings this past Sunday in Los Angeles, Edmonton Oiler eyes widen on Lord Stanley.
Tonight’s Game 5 a mere formality.
Yes, this series appears even—through four games, each club has won twice. But emotion and belief matter more in playoff hockey than stats and breakdowns.
To cut through the noise, seek simplicity; find clarity.
The Kings ventured valiantly to bottle up the Oil in Game 4 but to no avail. Ultimately, Edmonton made use of every club in its proverbial bag on Sunday. As a result, Connor McDavid and Company reversed LA’s would-be stranglehold and seized certainty in the series.
Puck drop is slated for 9:38 PM Eastern Time (6:38 PM Pacific) at Rogers Place in downtown Edmonton.
All odds, lines, and spreads are provided courtesy of BetMGM.
Posted Betting Lines (listed as of article post time)
Edmonton: -1.5 ATS (+110), -225 ML
LA: +1.5 ATS (-135), +185 ML
Total: O 6.5 (-115) / U 6.5 (-105)
Profit focused Picks for Oilers vs Kings Game 5
Siding with a winner sounds fun—obviously.
The key to keeping one’s betting account balance from dropping precipitously, however, is predicated on securing as much payback value as possible relative to measurable expectations.
So let’s secure the strongest value available in Game 5, shall we?
Strongest Value for Game 5
3-Way – Result After Regular Time (Tie, +360)
Yes, Edmonton is the side that is most likely to prevail here.
Would it be wrong to wager on the Oil by way of the moneyline in this spot? No.
Would it be worth it though? No.
Let’s examine why.
Hockey games, particularly post-season hockey games, are battles.
Decisive games are wars.
This series has served up an interesting plate of debate for analytic knobs that can’t quantify qualitative factors. Despite a one-sided statistical smashing by Edmonton, Los Angeles has won an equal amount of games through four consecutive clashes with the Oilers in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
No different, really, than one post-season ago. Four games played, two wins apiece.
So what gives?
The answer—that’s what makes playoff hockey special; immeasurable values.
What can be systematically identified however is a rate of consistency.
Math nerds call this the mode.
Over the course of the Oilers’ recent playoff forays, amid copious scores of change, one constant has held. Game Fives go to overtime.
Flashback to Sunday, May 8th, 2022; Edmonton loses Game 4 in LA, returns home two days later, and despite trailing 3-1 to start the third period of Game 5, and 4-2 midway through the 3rd period, eventually evens the score and skates to a draw through three periods.
The Oil would eventually win that series despite losing the aforementioned OT affair, which brings us to Edmonton’s last Game 5 experience.
Leading 3-1 in the series and in position to eliminate the Flames—in Calgary—the Oilers teeter-tottered through an up-and-down 40 minutes that left both sides even at 4-4 to start the third period. Through twenty more minutes of regulation, the score remained the same, and on to overtime marched Edmonton. Again.
One further consideration: the necessity for four or more periods has already manifested three times in four games.
That means if you placed the same wager (around average odds of +300 or better) in every game thus far between Edmonton and LA you’re already up over 600% and stand to be no worse than 500% to the good if this wager were to not come through again tonight.
On the flip side, if the Oilers’ moneyline was bet straight in all four games, those bets (assuming a fixed weight wager) would have yielded a net loss of roughly 190% or -$190 in aggregate (based on four to-win $100 wagers at market cost).
So when the time comes to make a value-driven decision on a Game 5 wager, consider the history, the circumstances and the odds and target return on investment.
All things considered, expect Edmonton to prevail.
A sudden-death strike, though, may once again be necessary, and if it is, a wager on a 3-period regulation draw equals pure OT enjoyment—with a premier payback to boot.
Game to play UNDER the Total (Under 6.5, -105)
Chances favor this swing match heading to a fourth frame, but even if this game is decided in regulation, odds are this game doesn’t see nearly as much scoring as was on display in downtown Los Angeles this past Sunday.
The Oilers and Kings have both had their fair share of wild scoring barrages through recent regular and post-season tilts, but when each team re-calibrated on Monday for tonight’s decisive Game 5 the conversation from both coaching staff’s was directed toward defensive adjustments.
Don’t be surprised to see lenient officiating throughout from a veteran refereeing crew that wants the players to determine the outcome on the ice, five-on-five.
In consideration of that, this game likely ends 3-2; as such, a flat price (around -105) on UNDER 6.5 and the probability of a tight contest signal firm value to pursue.
Lastly, for trend-heads, there’s this: the Kings and Oilers have seen 7 of their last 10 meetings play below the market total.
Moreover, 4 of the last 5 played in Canada have skewed lower.
Add to that the fact that 12 of LA’s last 17 games played on one day of rest (which is also the case tonight) have seen thinner scorelines and it seems to suggest scoring will come at a premium tonight in Alberta.
These plays are selected in light of their correlated expectation.
Embed from Getty Images
Correct Score: 2-3, Edmonton wins +1100
How many goals will be scored (regular time)?
4 goals +550
How many goals will the LA Kings Score? (including overtime and shoot-outs)
* often this is referred to as the Away Team (LA) Total *
UNDER 2.5 -110
Money Line and Totals (including overtime and shoot-outs):
Oilers to win, and under 6.5 goals +165
Joonas Korpisalo, Over 31.5 saves -105
Stuart Skinner, Under 2.5 Goals Against -120