Phillies Betting Recap
In my last Phillies betting preview, I put 2 units on the over 10.5 runs for Saturday’s game against the Rockies. Everything started off perfectly as the Phils scored three runs by the 3rd and the Rockies scored a run an inning until they tied it up in the 5th at 3-3.
I could have cashed out early and made a 20% profit but the way the game was going, it felt like I would have been leaving money on the table. The wind that had been blowing out the first three innings started to swirl and held up at least two different balls that would have been in the stands but were outs.
Long story short, the Phillies broke the tie in the 6th, and their bullpen has really come on strong lately and Philadelphia won 4-3, giving us our first loss of the season.
Seattle -120 vs. Philadelphia +100
The Seattle Mariners (10-12) come to town for a 3-game set currently in fourth place in the AL West. The Phillies meanwhile have a modest 3-game win streak and have gone 7-3 over their last 10.
RHP Logan Gilbert (1-1 3.57) takes the bump for the first game of the series for the visiting Mariners. He has outstanding control, walking only four batters in 22 2/3 innings, while also giving up 19 hits and fanning 28 batters.
Listening to a baseball podcast today, it seems that last week the higher-scoring average started to drop a bit, as teams became a little more accustomed to the pitch clock and pitchers are experimenting with substances to improve their grip on the ball.
The evidence of these substances is shown in the increased spin rate and the increase in pitcher strikeout percentage, which is currently at 23%, up from 22.4% at the same time last season. Something to observe moving on through the rest of the season.
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The Phillies send LHP Bailey Falter (0-3 4.50) to the mound. He is coming off a strong outing against the White Sox where he went 7 innings while giving up three earned runs on three hits with three strikeouts.
Unfortunately, this performance followed a performance of surrendering five runs over four and two-thirds, allowing eight hits and one walk. So, right now it’s a mystery of which Falter will be appearing this evening.
After taking our first loss of the season on Saturday, our total profit is currently sitting at 6 UNITS. Part of my wagering strategy is to try and find even money or better payouts. In order to be a break-even bettor at -110 odds, you need to hit 52.4%. However, you only need 48.8% when the odds are +105.
This is why betting underdogs is so vital to success because you can still be a “losing bettor” (winning percentage less than 50%) while still being a profitable bettor.
With that in mind, I’m going to take a small play on the Phillies for even money to win. As stated before, over the last 10 games they are a solid 7-3 record. Yes, I realize that many of those games were against the Dregs of the MLB, but Seattle isn’t a big jump up in class.
I’m keying on Gilbert’s stats when making this selection. His fastball is down 1.1 MPH from last season, while his GB% is up almost 12%. His BABIP .291 and if there is one thing that the Phillies can do, it is hit, as they have the 3rd highest average in the Majors at .276. While they are tied for 3rd for most runners left on base, that just means they’re getting plenty of opportunities to score.
I’m taking the under because the Mariners have the 5th-worst batting average in the league at .226. Falter’s BABIP is .275 and he’s stranded 68.8% of the runners that get on base. The average exit velocity of his batted balls is 87.1 MPH, almost 2 MPH less than a season ago. His HardHit% is 33.3%, indicating that when guys are connecting with his pitches, they’re not getting good contact.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Phillies ML +100 1 UNIT Pick: Under 8.5 runs 1 UNIT
Run line: 2-0 (+8 units)
Total: 0-1 (-2 units)