It’s Friday and there are 28 teams active today. Reviewing the slate and matchups, it looks like the Arizona @ Colorado game has some nice matchups, and of course with the game being in Colorado, this game has the highest o/u run total of the day at 11.5 runs. Let’s dig in!
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DFS and Start/Sit Recommendations
Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly/RHP) @ Rockies (Kyle Freeland/LHP)
8:40 PM EST
Matchups to target:
*Charlie Blackmon: 6-for-20 (.300), 1 2B, 0 HR, 3 K career vs Kelly
*Kris Bryant: 8-for-19 (.421), 3 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 K vs Kelly
C.J. Cron: 5-for-13 (.385), 3 2B, 0 HR, 1 K, vs Kelly
Evan Longoria: 11-for-34 (.324), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 7 K vs Freeland
Ketel Marte: 11-for-34 (.324), 4 2B, 1 HR, 6 BB, 6 K vs Freeland
*Corbin Carroll: no history vs Freeland
While the weather in Colorado at game time is in the 50’s and breezy, it’s typically a great place to hit which is why it usually has one of the higher over/under run totals on the board. Last season Kyle Freeland had a 6.00 ERA in 16 games at Coors, with a respectable 3.08 ERA in 15 games on the road. It looks like more of the same this season with a 5.28 ERA in 2 starts at home and 3.00 ERA in 2 starts on the road.
*The stack for DFS purposes should be Blackmon, Bryant, Carroll. For the Rockies, Blackmon and Bryant have the history against Kelly, but are also the hotter hitters of late, hitting .269 (7-for-26) and .346 (9-for-26) respectively over the last seven games. Cron is just 4-for-28 (.143) over the same period, although maybe a homestand in Colorado is just what the doctor ordered in order to get back on track. Carroll hasn’t faced Freeland before, but he leads the D-backs in batting average (.311) and home runs (4), is 10-for-25 (.400, 4 2B, 1 3B) over the last seven games while riding a 6-game hit streak, and guess what? The lefty is batting .407 against lefty pitchers so far this season (11-for-27), versus .270 against righties (17-for-63). He also provides a superb stolen base threat, having swiped 10 bags on the young season, second most in all of MLB behind only Ronald Acuna Jr. (13). Carroll is actually the most expensive of the three on FanDuel ($3800).
Betting Angle: a Carroll/Blackmon/Bryant to get a hit parlay is currently -106 at FanDuel
Start vs Sit
Start Dansby Swanson
Dansby is 3-for-7 in his career against Jesus Luzardo, including 1 double and 3 walks. He’s been a little cold lately, 4-for-25 (.160) over the last seven games, but he did start the year hot and hit his first homer of the season yesterday. Last season Swanson heated up heading into May where he hit .304 during that month (.216 in April). The two-hit day and the homer may have put him back on track.
Sit Francisco Lindor
Francisco is 3-for-23 in his career against Max Fried with 5 strikeouts. He’s batting just .200 (6-for-30) over the last seven games. In 2022 Lindor hit just .258 at Citi Field and .280 on the road; this year .200 at Citi and .219 on the road.