Bet the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 Like a Pro

The Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t get the result they wanted on Thursday night. Now the Buds head to Tampa Bay for a pivotal Game 6. Although the Leafs are up in the series 3-2, fans and the betting public are WORRIED. Me thinks there’s some PTSD from previous years. That said, the pros aren’t scared of nothing.

Betting Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6

Betting pros aren’t phased by Toronto’s inability to win an elimination game. The sharps buys are starting to come in on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Obviously, betting Toronto Maple Leafs in elimination games is not for the faint of heart. That said, ask any profitable gambler about their wagers and most will say they’re not for the weary.

Nevertheless, square bets only put a big bettor in the hole long term. Sometimes calculated risks need to be taken. Is wagering on the Leafs the right risk though? Let’s get into it.

Is a bet on the Maple Leafs worth it?

If I were to have to make a bet on this game, I’d say Toronto. Right now, as of April 28th at 8:08 pm EST, the Maple Leafs moneyline can be had at -110.

I have a funny feeling the public money will hit Tampa Bay hard by game time. So, this pick ‘em price on Toronto could easily turn to + money.

It’s a 0EV play at -110. +100 brings it closer to +EV. Mind you, I don’t base my entire system around EV. EV is just one of the tools in my box.

Can Toronto be trusted to ‘break the curse?’

If there wasn’t any pre-existing history of postseason failures for the Leafs, a lot of people would have more faith in Toronto. I guarantee you this would show in the betting splits.

The main thing the Maple Leafs need to do is play a consistent high-level game for a full 60 minutes. No weak shifts. There’s no reason Toronto should be getting outplayed. Of course, Tampa wants to keep it tight. Toronto has to push the pace. Use its speed and skill to its full potential.

Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe should also consider taking defenceman Justin Holl out of the lineup. Holl’s play has been detrimental to Toronto’s chances as of late. The Lightning love it when Holl is on the ice. Obviously, this isn’t a fix-all solution by taking Holl out of the lineup. No word of a lie though, Holl sucks and as a bettor, his play makes me sick. Like physically ill. I don’t want him on the ice in any capacity.

The Leafs secondary scoring needs to pick it up too. If the secondary scoring picks up and the core of Matthews, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander play at a top level, the Leafs could be deadly.

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What are my plays for Game 6?

I’m leaning towards betting Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline at -110. I might wager a bit harder if I can get the Leafs at + money.

The public is getting too caught up in the “Leafs can’t win an elimination game” narrative. Eventually, the Leafs will have to win one. They have all the tangibles there to get a W. Toronto just needs to come out with the pedal to the metal. If the Leafs play a full 60 minutes at a high level, I don’t see why they can’t win. That said, if the Leafs are STILL stuck in “that mental rut,” the W might not be a sure thing.

So, whatever y’all end up betting, wager responsibility and know your limit and play within it.

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Christian Holmes, Toronto
Christian Holmes, Toronto
Christian Holmes is a freelance journalist with a passion for sports betting. He runs his own sports betting consultant business which has helped his clients develop winning strategies to ensure long-term profits. Holmes graduated from Humber College in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in journalism. His work has been featured on many platforms and has even found its way into books authored by TSN hockey insider Bob McKenzie. Follow Holmes' work on Gametime Sharks if you want to learn new tips and tricks on how to spot good plays and "stay aways."

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