Big Opportunity in Betting the Cubs at Nationals

The Chicago Cubs have been one of the surprises of the young 2023 MLB season. As losers of seven of their last 11 games, they are in the midst of a slump right, but come into Tuesday with a 15-13 record.

The offense has been a big part of their early success, as they rank 8th in HR, 7th in runs scored, 7th in SB, 9th in ISO, 2nd in BA…you get the idea. The offense has been solid. They draw a solid matchup once again in this one against the fraudulent Trevor Williams.

Chicago Cubs (-142, O/U 8.5) at Washington Nationals, May 2, 2023

On the surface, it looks like Williams is getting the job done. From a realistic standpoint, he is a blowup waiting to happen. His xERA (expected ERA) is nearly two runs higher than his ERA. Trevor’s K rate is just 15%, and he is allowing a TON of hard contact. His Barrel% is a ridiculous 13.5%. Among qualified starters, here is the list of pitchers who have allowed a higher rate:

Rich Hill.

That’s it. That’s the list. Not the company you want to be keeping. It’s safe to say the Cubs will be able to score some runs in this one.

Is Hayden Wesenski Good?

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In a word, no.

He has almost an identical xERA to our friend Trevor Williams. The main issue is that the number is above SIX. Wesenski also has a K rate of just 15%, WHIP of 1.52, and a walk rate of 8%.

Adding to the similarities are that Hayden has even worse HR problems. He has served up five meatballs in just 22.1 innings of work. His Barrel% isn’t quite as bad (10.4), but nobody was buying what he was selling anyway.

Inexplicably, this line is set WAY too low.

Give me the OVER 8.5

I’ll be shocked if we don’t see double-digits in D.C. on Tuesday night.

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Justin Elick, Chicago
Justin Elick, Chicago
Justin is a sports enthusiast who studies statistics for fun. He can be found trying to find angles and patterns in any trend and use that information to make some cash! He has been in the betting realm creating content since the infancy of DFS. Find him on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let him know how much you love his haircut.

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