Betting Edge in Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds May 5, 2023

Both the White Sox and Reds are off to slow starts in the 2023 season. The main difference is the 10-22 Sox had high expectations, while the Reds were expected to live in the cellar.

Will things get any better for the Southsiders on their trip to the Queen City? Let’s take a look.

Chicago White Sox (-112, O/U 9) at Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 ET

At 35 years old, Lance Lynn has looked every bit like an aging starter in 2023. He has allowed 2, 8, 3, 5, 4, and 4 ER in his starts in the early going. One thing he HAS done well is strikeouts. He has 42 over 32.2 IP, but he has also handed out 15 free passes and eight home runs.

Embed from Getty Images

The White Sox finally got off their losing streak against the Twins, but this isn’t exactly a good spot on Friday evening. The Reds have been one of the poorer offenses in baseball, but have done one thing well of late. They own just a 19.1% K rate as a team over the last week.

That doesn’t bode well for Lynn and his 45.6% HardHit rate. He is due some positive regression with his .354 BABIP and 22.9 HR/FB rate. That said, Great American Ball Park isn’t the place to do so.

How Good is Hunter Greene?

For those of you who may not know, I’m a Cincinnati kid (like Sam Hubbard, WHO DEY!). However, I don’t let fandom cloud my judgement, especially when it comes to the Reds.

However, Greene is a name you need to be watching closely. This kid was the most hyper pitching prospect in a LONG time when he was drafted in 2017. He is finally showing elite upside, and that is bad news for the White Sox. He has become must-watch television.

As you can see here, Greene is absolutely electric. He has struck out 40 in just 28 innings of work, including 10 here against Oakland last time out. This White Sox lineup has been pretty pathetic in 2023, striking out 23% of the time with just a 7% walk rate.

The Sox are a more talented roster, that isn’t debatable. What also isn’t debatable is that Greene right now is miles better than Lynn.

Give me the Reds (-104 at FanDuel)

With two struggling offenses here, I’m taking the significant edge at pitcher to the bank.

Related articles


Justin Elick, Chicago
Justin Elick, Chicago
Justin is a sports enthusiast who studies statistics for fun. He can be found trying to find angles and patterns in any trend and use that information to make some cash! He has been in the betting realm creating content since the infancy of DFS. Find him on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let him know how much you love his haircut.

Latest articles