Betting Value on Total in Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs May 5, 2023

For those of you who are number nerds like me, seeing that both these teams are 16-16 coming into this game is oddly satisfying. Both the Marlins and Cubs have shown signs of life this season, but I’m more of a believer in one side.

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-165, O/U 9)

Edward Cabrera has shown flashes of brilliance at times in 2023. However, facing a Cubs team that is top 10 in almost every offensive category (that is not a typo) will be challenge.

Over his last three starts, Cabrera has struck out 26 batters in just 15.1 innings of work. That is what we call dominance. The issue is that he has also allowed 11 walks over that span, and a whopping 25 overall in 27 innings of work.

His last start came against these same Cubbies, and aside from the five walks, he was phenomenal. Can he do it again on Friday?

Justin Steele is the Real Deal

Cabrera’s counterpart in this one is Justin Steele. If you don’t know about him, it’s time to know. This kid has been fantastic dating back to last season, and is putting up solid numbers. Jared Carrabis knows.

Across 36.1 innings of work, he has a 1.49 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 32/11 K/BB. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in a single start this season. It looks like the wind is blowing right-to-left in this one, which only bolsters the appeal here.

This total seems way too high for me here. Both pitchers have solid upside and the Marlins are 30th in runs scored in MLB this season.

I’m taking the UNDER 9

Steele and Cabrera will battle this one out in a low-scoring affair.

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Justin Elick, Chicago
Justin Elick, Chicago
Justin is a sports enthusiast who studies statistics for fun. He can be found trying to find angles and patterns in any trend and use that information to make some cash! He has been in the betting realm creating content since the infancy of DFS. Find him on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let him know how much you love his haircut.

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