Phillies Betting Recap
In yesterday’s Phillies Betting Preview, I took the over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings and also took the Red Sox on the money line at +145. But wait, how can a Phillies’s fan bet against his own squad?
As a gambler, it’s sometimes difficult to be subjective when evaluating a favorite team for wagering purposes. I often hear that you shouldn’t bet on “your” team because you should bet with your head and not your heart.
I agree 100 percent that you should always bet with your head and not your heart. Unfortunately, most people know their favorite team better than any other, and not by not betting on them they are wasting potentially years of valuable stats and information. The trick is to look at a game subjectively and not emotionally.
I will always bleed Kelly Green and love my Phillies and Sixers. But I also want to provide my readers with the most unbiased content possible, and if that means saying I think one of my beloved Philly teams is going down, I won’t hesitate to pass that info on.
Boston Red Sox (21-14) at Philadephia Phillies (15-19)
The Red Sox look to sweep the 3-game series with the Phillies on Sunday afternoon. RHP Tanner Houck (3-1 5.34) takes the hill for the visitors as RHP Taijuan Walker (2-2 6.91) is starting for the Phils. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. The line is currently Boston +105 Philadelphia -125 O/U 9 runs
If you’re a fan of good pitching, this has not been the series for you. This contest features two more pitchers that are struggling this year. Houck has a winning record because the Red Sox are scoring an average of 8.6 runs per start by Tanner, not because of anything he’s doing.
Walker is already being touted as a “Philly who fans have lost patience with” and for good reason. Hoping to find lightning in a bottle again with an ex-Met pitcher (Zach Wheeler was the first, the Phillies picked up Walker in the off-season. To say he’s a disappointment so far would be an understatement of epic proportions. While his strikeouts per nine innings have increased from 7.55 to 9.10 K/9, his walks/9 have risen even more (2.57 to 5.37 BB/9). Almost every third flyball is a home run (29.2% HR/FB ratio).
BRYCE HARPER FIRST HOME RUN OF THE 2023 SEASON 💥
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 7, 2023
Bryce Harper has been back for three games now from his off-season Tommy John surgery that was initially estimated to have kept him out of action until the All-Star break. Instead, he’s looking like an All-Star now, hitting his first home run of the season on Saturday. He’s hitting .375 with one double, one home run, and one RBI.
Boston’s Houck has been vulnerable to left-handed hitting this season, with lefties hitting .277 and four home runs in 76 plate appearances. The Phillies’ Walker doesn’t discriminate who he gives homers to, serving up three dingers in the 54 left-handed hitters he’s faced and four homers in the 75 righties he’s gone up against.
With this abundance of “great pitching” taking to the mound on Sunday, I’ll be taking a long look at the over, currently at 9.5. In the computer model that I utilize, after simulating this game 50,000 times, the average runs scored was 10.2.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Over 9 runs -120 3 UNITS
Run Line: 2-0 (+8 units)
O/U: 2-1 (+1 units)
Money Line: 2-0 (+3 units)