The sky is falling. Everyone is saying the Toronto Maple Leafs are done. Down 3-0 to Florida. The core-four nowhere to be found. The whole wide world is against the boys in blue and for good reason. That said, should we bettors fall for the hype? Methinks, no, let’s not get caught up in all that. How do we pave our own way? I got just the bet to make!
An Arbitrage Bet To Make For Toronto Maple Leafs-Florida Panthers Game 4
Here’s the deal: the Maple Leafs probably won’t make it out of this thing alive. Mind you, I don’t think they’ll get swept. In a perfect world, I see them winning Game 4. I don’t think Toronto lights the world on fire, but I do think they cash the -120 ML.
I also think Florida takes this series in five games.
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LEAFS IN Seven!?!?
I’m sure you’ve heard the odds of a team coming back from being down 3-0. I’m not going to repeat again. That said, I’ll go out on a limb by saying I’ll bet both my left and right nuts that Toronto won’t come back to win this series in seven games. They might win a game or two but that’s it.
The defense is lacking. Star players are folding like sandpaper. The line juggling is out of hand.
Florida’s balls have dropped and they’re ready to get the job done. Just not right away.
The arbitrage bet worth considering
So, the consensus is Florida in 5. That means Toronto wins Game 4.
Our first bet would than be Toronto Maple Leafs ML -120 (or best price available) for Game 4.
Now, some books like Fanduel are offering +370 for 5 total games (it can be found in: SERIES TOTAL GAMES).
Essentially, what this means is you will now be getting +370 odds on Florida to win Game 5. This will beat any price on the market if the Leafs are able to force a Game 5.
The kicker is Florida could close this series out in four. That said, it isn’t overly risky to put 1 unit (plus the juice) on Toronto’s -120 GM4 ML and commit 1 unit to the +370 (5 games) series total games bet.
Worst comes to worst, you’re down 2 units. Best possible outcome would be that you’re up 4.70 units on a 2 unit investment. Another possibility is that you break even by Toronto winning Games 4 and 5.
Nevertheless, it’s a worthwhile risk for someone that’s looking to capitalize on the whole “Panthers in four narrative.”
Remember, when the squarist of bettors start to jump on the dog, that means it’s probably best to consider the favourite. This is the situation we find ourselves in. Plus, the square bettors will probably jump back on the Leafs bandwagon if there’s a Game 5.