Before I dive into how I’m approaching the NFC North Futures Market, just know that I will never recommend a bet I myself am not making. At the risk of angering my editor, a lot of Sports Betting Content is forced betting picks. You won’t get any of that in my articles. I’m a professional Sports Bettor, who won’t put out a recommendation that I won’t bet.
ALSO SEE: Betting the AFC South Futures
Now that we’ve got that out of the way let’s take a look at the prices in the NFC North thanks to our friends at BetStamp.
The reason tools like BetStamp are useful, is because you can get an idea which Sportsbook you should be making a bet at based on who’s offering the best price. You wouldn’t show up to a gas station and say I only fill-up at Pump 5 because that’s the pump I love. If pump 8 had the cheapest price, you would fill-up there. The same goes for Sportsbooks. It’s a great practice to have multiple accounts in order to get the best price. If you’re looking for new Sportsbooks, join one of the Sportsbooks below.
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How to Bet the NFC North
So how do we approach betting the NFC North? Right now the Markets are pricing the Detroit Lions as the team to beat. This is a team that is on the rise the past couple years under Head Coach Dan Campbell, but are they a good bet at their price?
The Minnesota Vikings despite winning 13 Games last year are 2nd in odds. The story on the Vikings is that many felt they were overrated despite their record last year. A poor Point Differential and a 1st round exit added to the fuel. But are they being underrated now?
How about the Chicago Bears being 3rd in the division despite being the worst team in Football last year? The Bears spent big money this offseason, and many expect Justin Fields to take a 3rd year leap, but can they win the division?
And finally the Green Bay Packers are being priced as the worst team in the division according to the betting markets. This is because of Aaron Rodgers leaving the team, but has the price been over-corrected?
Power Rating Each team in the division
Detroit Lions – 15th in my Power Ratings. 0 Points better than an average team
Minnesota Vikings – 16th in my Power Ratings. 0 Points better than an average team
Green Bay Packers – 19th in my Power Ratings. -0.5 better than an average team
Chicago Bears – 24th in my Power Ratings. -2 better than an average team
Why are power-ratings important?
It allows me to assign a point spread value to each team, and what their probability of winning each individual game is this season. Then I can calculate all those numbers combined and come up with a projected win total for each team. You can see from my Power Ratings, I think this division is a lot closer top to bottom, despite the markets feeling Detroit is substantially better than the rest.
Bets I’m Making for NFC North Division
Minnesota Vikings +325 to win the Division – Can be found at Bet365 and MGM Grand
Green Bay Packers +500 to win the Division – Can be found at Bet Rivers, Draft Kings, and Leo Vegas
Minnesota and Green Bay Top 2 in Division Any order +800 – Can be found at Bet365 and Draft Kings
Projected Win Totals
These are my projected win Totals and how close it is
Detroit – 8.98
Green Bay – 8.85
Minnesota – 8.66
Chicago – 8.13
I have the division top to bottom within one win of each other. This is without a doubt the closest division, and the case can be made anyone can win it. Because of that I’m taking two cracks at it with Green Bay and Minnesota whose likelihood of winning the division is higher than the Market is pricing.
Bets I’m Making for Win Totals
Green Bay Over 7.5 Wins +100 – Found at Bet365 and Draft Kings
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