Recap of May 24th
In our last Red Sox betting preview we saw the Red Sox lose an ugly 7-3 game to the Angels, dropping all three games of the series to the Halos and losing our Sox moneyline and run line bet on Wednesday. Overall, we hit with the over 9 runs, thanks to a ninth inning Rob Refsnyder single. It is a new day, and the Red Sox (26-24, 4th in AL East) travel to Arizona (29-21, 2nd in NL West) to take on the young and promising Diamondbacks for a 3 game set. The Sox will need to string together some wins in the desert before coming back home to keep up with the rest of the AL East and the MLB leading Rays. Game time for Friday is set for 9:40pm EST in Arizona.
All betting lines and odds are courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook.
Betting Lines, Odds and Projected Starters
ML: BOS -140
Run Line: BOS -1.5 (+115)
ARI +1.5 (-135)
O/U: 9 (Over: EV / Under: -120)
May 26: Chris Sale (4-2, 5.01) vs Brandon Pfaadt (0-1, 7.65)
May 27: Garrett Whitlock (1-2, 6.19) vs TBD
May 28: Tanner Houck (3-3, 4.99) vs Merrill Kelly (5-3, 2.98)
Is Chris Sale back?
In Chris Sales last start against a strong Padres offense, he showed flashes of his old self, striking out 8 in 7 innings and letting up 2 runs – both solo shots in the Red Sox 4-2 win on May 20th. His last 3 starts have been promising, going 7, 8 and 6 innings and giving the Sox chances to win ball games – all you can ask for. His strikeout numbers have been promising as well, posting 27 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. I like Sale to go over 5.5 Ks (-150) tonight, with the D-backs ranking 15th in OPS vs lefties, middle of pack. With the Sox moving back to a five man rotation of Sale-Whitlock-Houck-Bello-Paxton and moving Kluber and Pivetta to the bullpen after rough starts to the year, Sale can continue to prove himself to be the Sox ace as we’ve known him for years when he’s healthy.
Chris Sale is coming off 4 straight Quality Starts:
32/3 K/BB 👀
The command issues are gone & Sale is back to dominating hitters. A massive development for the playoff hopes of this team.
— Big Sox Guy (@BigSoxGuy) May 26, 2023
Hitting Props and Game Picks
The Sox offense was stagnant the whole series against the Halos, not offering much run support throughout. I like them to bounce back tonight against an unproven Brandon Pfaadt to kick off this Memorial Day Weekend series. Some hitting props to look at for both sides include:
BOS: Jarren Duran over 1.5 Bases (+110), Emmanuel Valdez over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-105) and a fun bet: Masataka Yoshida to hit a home run (+650)
ARI: Christian Walker over 1.5 Bases (+125) and over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-115). He has a 1.110 OPS and .306 average vs lefties in his 49 ABs, not to mention 6 homers and 16 RBIs.
With the over/under set at 9, I just don’t trust the Sox offense enough right now to say this will be a high scoring affair, not to mention how good Chris Sale has been pitching as of late. I am leaning the Under 9 runs (-120) in Fridays game, but expect the scoring to pick up as this series progresses through the weekend.
Game Prediction: Red Sox ML (-140) and First 5 Innings Run Line -0.5 (-110)
The Sox should have the advantage on the hill tonight, especially if they get the Chris Sale we have been seeing over his last 3 starts against good offenses. They should do just enough vs Pfaadt to knock him out around 4-5 innings and have Arizonas bullpen go the rest of the game. I like the Sox to take game 1 of this set in the desert and get back in the winning column after a tough series in Anaheim behind a strong start from Sale and putting bat-to-ball vs Pfaadt to start.