Phillies Betting Preview: Nola stops the skid

In Sunday’s edition of the Phillies Betting Preview, I predicted a pitcher’s duel and took the SGP of both starters over 4 and 8 strikeouts, accordingly. Phillies Dylan Covey must not have gotten the memo, as he didn’t get out of the first inning. Strider, on the other hand, struck out 9 in his 6 innings pitched and the Braves easily won 11-4.

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Phillies (-130) vs Mets (+105) O/U 8.5

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On Wednesday night in New York, the second game of the three-game set between the Phillies and New York Mets is set to take place. While both of these teams made the post-season last year, they have had a sluggish start to the 2023 campaign. The Phillies send RHP Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.59) to go up against Mets’ RHP Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 6.75). The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM EST.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been struggling to find their rhythm in the 2023 season, unable to recapture the enchantment that led them to the World Series in 2022. Despite winning two out of four games against the Braves in Atlanta over the weekend, the Phillies remain below .500 and currently hold the fourth position in the NL East Division. Following a day of rest on Monday, the Phillies set their sights on New York, aiming to narrow the gap in the NL East standings. Unfortunately, on Tuesday night, the Phillies could only muster two hits and suffered a 2-0 defeat against the Mets.

In the second matchup of this series against the Mets, the Phillies will entrust their ace pitcher, Aaron Nola, to lead the way. Nola boasts a record of 4-3 this season, accompanied by a 4.59 ERA across his 11 starts. Demonstrating his prowess, he has recorded six quality starts and a commendable WHIP of 1.12. Nola has faced 62 hits across 68.2 innings pitched so far. While maintaining a respectable strikeout rate of 7.9, he has, unfortunately, allowed 11 home runs this season. When competing on the road, Nola’s performance slightly dips, as he holds a 2-2 record in seven starts with an ERA of 5.02. His K/9 rate decreases to 7.3, and notably, seven out of his 11 home runs conceded occurred away from Citizens Bank Park. It’s worth noting that Nola struggled against the Mets last season, going winless at 0-4 in five starts, although he did manage a 3.99 ERA.

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The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco as their starting pitcher for the second game of the series against the Phillies. In this season, Carrasco has a record of 1-2 across five starts, accompanied by a rather high ERA of 6.75. He has faced 24 hits in 25.1 innings pitched, resulting in a WHIP of 1.42. Unfortunately, Carrasco has already surrendered five home runs in his five starts. When playing on home turf, Carrasco’s performance hasn’t been ideal, as he holds an 0-1 record in two starts with an unimpressive ERA of 10.12. He has given up 11 hits in 9.2 innings pitched and allowed 11 earned runs, with a low K/9 rate of just 3.7. It is worth mentioning that Carrasco managed to secure a victory in one start against the Phillies last year, although he did so with a challenging ERA of 7.94.

I’m focusing on the Phillies on the run line today. On BetMGM, the odds on the 1.5 runs is +125. However, on DraftKings, you can find the same wager at +140. This illustrates one of the most important concepts in sports wagering: market shopping. It’s vital to have access to multiple sportsbooks as the difference here is 12%. If you can get that kind of added advantage on your wagers, it can either greatly enhance your winnings or significantly reduce your losers.


Bets and Season Record

Pick: Phillies -1.5 run line +140 (DraftKings) 3 units

Season Record:

Run Line: 2-2 (+4 units)

O/U: 5-5 (+1 units)

Money Line: 4-2 (+1 units)

Total: 10-8 

Prop Bets: 1-3 (-2 units)

Up 10 units (+$1000)


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Joey House, Philadephia Editor
Joey House, Philadephia Editor
Sports have always been a part of Joey's life. He grew up in a Penn State household and became a Phillies and Eagles fan the same year, 1980. Not just because of their runs to their championship games, but because all his friends were either Harold Carmichael or Pete Rose on the playground. Gambling came later, as he was anointed with the moniker "House" because he ran all of the gambling and poker operations on his Navy ship. Now he brings over 25 years of gambling activity, both from the bettor's and "bookies" perspective, to help you maximise both your financial and entertainment returns.

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