Your Fantasy Baseball Rundown for 6/13
Hitters to Target
|Vlad Guerrero||1B||TOR||BAL||Dean Kremer||16||6||5||4||.375||1.63|
|Nolan Arenado||3B||STL||SF||Alex Cobb||6||3||2||1||.500||1.67|
|Christian Walker||1B||ARI||PHI||Zack Wheeler||11||6||2||1||.545||1.46|
|Mookie Betts||OF||LAD||CWS||Lance Lynn||15||5||2||1||.333||.989|
Vladdy has had quite a bit of success versus Dean Kremer in his career, going 6-for-16 (.316) including FOUR home runs. Kremer has been a little up and down this season for the O’s, posting a 6.67 ERA over six starts in April, but rebounding to the tune of a 2.45 ERA in five May starts. Kremer was roughed up in his last outing, pitching just 5 innings and allowing 6 earned runs on 9 hits, including 2 HR. Vladdy seems to have gone on a bit of a power outage, having not homered since 6/4 and just 2 times since May 5th. Vladdy seems due, and he’s got the history with Kremer, so this looks like a good spot for him to come alive. If not Tuesday, look at him again tomorrow when he faces Kyle Bradish, who Guerrero is 5-for-13 (.385) off of including a homer.
Arenado is riding a 7-game hit streak, during which he’s gone 11-for-26 (.423), with 3 HR and 7 RBI. He’s hitting .378 in June (14-for-37) and has had some success against Alex Cobb, going 3-for-6 off of him in his career, including a double, a HR, and zero strikeouts. Cobb has been pretty good so far this season, but was tagged for 4 earned runs his last time out in 5 IP at Colorado. Cobb has been much worse on the road, with a 4.62 ERA on the road while posting a miserly 1.43 ERA at home. This was the case in 2022 as well, posting a 2.68/5.20 ERA home/road split.
Walker is 10-for-36 (.278) with 5 2B, 3 RBI, 5 runs, and 3 BB in June, so he’s been a solid contributor, but notably missing from June line is that he has yet to hit a home run. He’s got 12 HR on the season, so the power is still there, but when will he bust out again? Maybe off of Zack Wheeler. Walker is 6-for-14 (.429) off Wheeler lifetime, including a double and a homer. Wheeler has been hit or miss lately, allowing 0-7-0-3 earned runs in his last four starts. Wheeler is a power pitcher, and Walker is a power hitter, so we’ll see what happens when these two meet again. You know what they say — the harder it comes in, the further it goes out.
Mookie is on a bit of a roll lately, collecting at least one hit in his last six games, and hitting .324 in June (12-for-37) with 4 HR, 8 RBI, and 10 runs scored. Betts is facing Lance Lynn who might be running out of gas at age 36. Lynn has a 6.72 ERA on the year, and has given up 13 earned runs on 16 hits (4 HR) in his last 2 starts. Betts has the history against Lynn, having gone 5-for-15 (.333) off the righty in his career, including a double, a home run, and 3 walks.
Carroll is the only one on this list that doesn’t have any history versus the opposing pitcher, Zack Wheeler. But he’s arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now, going 13-for-25 (.520) over his last 6 games, with 2 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 9 RBI, 11 R, 3 SB, 3 HBP, a walk, and a partridge in a pear tree. Of course the last one is made up, but clearly he contributes across categories, and although this is his first full season in the pros, he won’t be intimidated by Wheeler in this righty-lefty matchup. Lefties hit .269 off Wheeler so far this season, while righties are batting a paltry .201 (I still stand behind Walker!).
Ohtani has the second-longest hit streak in the majors right now at 9 games. During that span he’s 17-for-37 (.459), including 5 HR – two of which came Monday night. No announcement has been made on the Texas starting pitcher, but it likely won’t matter, although Ohtani is markedly better off righties, hitting .311 off of them versus .231 against southpaws.
Freddie doesn’t have great numbers against Lynn, but those numbers are in the past. You’ve read what I said about Lynn already, but here’s some additional nuggets: Lefties are batting .362 this season while righties just .214, and lefties have 12 HR in 141 at-bats while righties have 4 HR in nearly the same amount of at-bats (154). Hmmm…. maybe Freddie should be the “Target” and Betts should be the “Honorable Mention.” Or maybe you could just stack them…
DFS Stacks to Consider
Betts/Freeman/Peralta vs Lance Lynn (ERA 6.72)
I’ve outlined the case for Betts and Freeman above, but if you want a third batter for your stack you could look at David Peralta, who not only would be a value play for DFS, but also has had success against Lynn. Peralta is 6-for-16 with a double and a homer off Lynn, and has been swinging a hot bat lately when given the opportunity, hitting .455 (10-for-22) in seven June games, with 2 doubles, a home run, and 5 RBI. Make sure to check the lineup to make sure he’s playing, if not you could pivot to another lefty, Jason Heyward, who is 8-for-21 (.381) off Lynn, or another lefty, Max Muncy (1-for-2 off Lynn). J.D. Martinez has been hot, but FYI, he’s just 3-for-23 (.130) lifetime off Lynn with 8 strikeouts.
Hayes/Reynolds/Suwinski vs Jameson Taillon (ERA 7.02)
Hayes has been good, hitting .486 (18-for-37) in June, including 3 doubles, a triple, 2 HR, 9 RBI, and 7 runs scored. Reynolds is batting .280 on the year and is on a 5-game hit streak, but is a much better hitter from the left side (.302 vs .229). Taillon is yielding a higher batting average to lefties as well (.303 vs .276). Speaking of left-hand hitting batters, Jack Suwinski is one of those. Suwinski just came off a series versus the Mets where he was 5-for-11 (.455), with a double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 RBI, and SIX runs scored.
A few other games you could look at
The Rockies at Boston: this game has the highest over/under total runs, set at 10. You could also look at the Reds versus the Royals. Jordan Lyles is pitching for the Royals and has a 6.84 ERA on the year. And the big bats of the Braves might take their revenge for last night’s 9th inning bullpen meltdown out on Reese Olson of the Tigers.
Start vs Sit
Start Orlando Arcia
The leading vote-getter at Shortstop for the All-Star game to this point in the voting, Arcia is hitting .351 (13-for-37) in June, with 6 RBI and 3 runs scored. He could be a value play at SS in DFS formats, allowing you to use your funds elsewhere.
Sit Willy Adames – Adames came off the concussion IL 6/7, and he’s 5-for-22 since then (.227). He faces Pablo Lopez, a pitcher who he’s never got a hit off of in his career, going 0-for-11 against him with EIGHT strikeouts (72%!).
Phillies F5 ML (-142 at FanDuel): While I like a couple D-backs as outlined above, there are a few more Phillies with some success off of Zach Davies. This game could be close and the D-backs could end up winning the game, but I like the Phils through the first five innings.
Dodgers F5 Run Line -0.5 (-142 at FanDuel): For reasons mentioned above I like the Dodgers to jump out on Lynn and to have a lead of at least a run after five innings.
Parlay the above 2 bets for +190 at FanDuel.