The title of yesterday’s Phillies Betting Preview was “Phillies Bats Go Off Tonight,” and I made a three-unit investment on the Phillies Alternate total of 5.5 at +140. They tied their season high in runs in a 15-3 obliteration of Arizona. Every Phillies starter had a hit, with Kyle Schwarber socking a lead-off homer for the 23rd time in his career. Our three-unit wager earned a nice 4.2 units in profit.
Claim your bonus and bet on the Phillies vs D-Backs at DraftKings Sportsbook
Download Caesars Sportsbook and place your bet on Phillies vs D-Backs
Claim your bonus and bet on Phillies vs D-Backs at FanDuel Sportsbook
Phillies (+110) vs Diamondbacks (-135) O/U 8.5
The Phillies send LHP Ranger Suarez (1-2 4.70) to square off against the Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly (8-3 2.92)Â in Game 3 of this 4-game set. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40.
The Phillies Ranger Suarez’s season started late and not so great. Suffering an injury in the World Baseball Classic, Suarez made his MLB season debut in the middle of May. His first four starts, one of them against the Diamondbacks, were on the poor side, but since then, his most recent performances have been much better.
The Phillies’ offense is once again thriving in the month of June. In the last 10 games, where they’re 8-2, the Phils are 2nd in the Majors in batting average (.300), first in runs (62), and many different advanced analytics as well. A major contributor to this offensive outburst is J.T. Realmuto. In Monday’s 9-8 loss, Realmuto became the first Phillies player in 19 years to hit for the cycle. David Bell did this against the Montreal Expos (now the Washington Nationals) on June 28th, 2004.
As you can see, this summer batting barrage isn’t something new for the Phillies. They’ve been doing it for decades.
Merrill Kelly is the Robin to Zac Gallen’s Batman of this rather pedestrian pitching staff. The numbers speak volumes: an impressive 2.92 ERA, a solid 1.10 WHIP, and a tie for the league lead in wins at 8-3. Kelly has undeniably emerged as a dominant force on the mound, consistently keeping opposing teams’ runs in check. Even when he gets touched up a little bit, as in his last outing against the Tigers, where he went 6.1 innings and gave up three runs, all earned, he has those mighty Arizona bats to bail him out. That’s exactly what they did that game, torching the Tigers for 11 runs to give Kelly his 8th win of the season.
Kelly has a 1-1 record with a 1.98 ERA in his lifetime against Philadelphia. In 13.2 innings pitched, he only gave up 11 hits, four runs (three earned), and nine strikeouts to one walk. However, this was all the way back in 2019 in his 30-year-old rookie season.
Offensively speaking, they’re almost a carbon copy of the Phillies. Over the last ten games, in which they are 7-3, they are 4th in the MLB in batting with a .286 average, 3rd in the league in runs with 58, and second in the league with only 61 strikeouts.
The Wagers
The Phillies are going to have their work cut out for them if they hope to keep this momentum rolling, as Kelly is the real deal. But the Phillies have a couple of things in their favor. Their bullpen got a night off last night as Wheeler pitched six strong, and newly-promoted Luis Ortiz pitched the final three innings for the save. In contrast, the D-Backs relievers have pitched over nine innings in the first two games of the series. This Suarez was not the one Arizona roughed up last month, and as scary as it is, I’m taking the Phillies on the money line, albeit for a very modest amount.
However, I will also look for some slight insurance. Merrill Kelly’s strikeout total is set at 5.5, and I think he will do that quite easily. The power of odds shopping comes into play here, as you can get him for even money at Barstool or get him at -150 at Draftkings. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Barstool’s line either get juicier or go up to 6, but for now, that’s also a solid play.
Bets and Season Record
Pick:Â Phillies +125 (Draftkings) 2 Units
Pick:Â Merrill Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts +100 (Barstool) 2 Units
Season Record:
Up 15 units (+$1500)
