With the All-Star game just days away, it’s hard to believe that the baseball season is half over. This is the final weekend of action until the players get a four-day mini-vacation before it’s back to the grind and the hunt for playoffs. Tomorrow’s main slate at DraftKings has 11 games on it.
Kevin Gausman-RHP @ Detroit $11,500
The Blue Jays Kevin Gausman is the highest-priced pitcher, with good reason. In the 85 plate appearances he’s pitched against the current Tigers roster, he boasts a 34.1 K%, allowed a .220 batting average, and a wOBA of .287. For the season, Gausman is averaging 11.98 Ks/9, just 0.74 HR/9, and a 44.2% GB rate. His ERA of 3.04 is 18th of all starting pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. His xFIP numbers are even better, as he leads the majors with a 2.82 xFIP.
He faces a Tigers team that is pretty punchless against right-handed pitching. For the season they have a .229 batting against righty starters and have scored 254 runs, both 4th-worst in the league. Their ISO comes in at .131, again 4th-worst and their wOBA of .290 is three up from the bottom.
It’s going to cost you plenty to get his expected average of 23.20 fantasy points per game, but he looks to be a solid selection against an inept Tigers team.
Ranger Suarez– LHP @ Miami $8,700
With Ranger Suarez, you get the second-hottest Phillie’s pitcher at a price that allows you some of the heavy hitters or stacks that my colleague mentioned in his earlier article. In the 46 Miami batters he’s gone up against, they are hitting .220, with a 21.7%K rate and a wOBA of .281. He started shaky in May while recovering from an injury suffered in the WBC, but Suarez was truly dominant in the month of June, allowing batters to hit a paltry .202 against him, with an absurdly-low .500 OPS and a sub-1.000 WHIP at 0.960.
While the Marlins do have the league’s 3rd-highest batting average at home against lefties at .302, this is mitigated slightly by anemic power numbers. They’ve only gone yard six times while hosting lefty pitching and have the second-lowest ISO with .125. Their BABIP of .366 is rather high, indicating that they could be due to regress a bit with regards to average, which would then further reduce their limited offensive output.
Drew Smyly– LHP @New York Yankees $7700
A pure contrarian play, Drew Smyly has always pitched well against the Yankees, with a minuscule 1.85 ERA in 43.2 innings, a 0.779 WHIP, and an OPS of .547. While the xFIP of 3.87 is 2 runs higher than the ERA, that is still quite respectable. His season numbers aren’t nearly as good, but right in line with an average pitcher for today. A 4.10 ERA, 90 innings pitched in 17 starts, 30 walks against 76 strikeouts. His K/9 is a little on the low side at 7.60 and his HR/9 is 1.30. But these are the risks you take when making a contrarian play.
The Yankees are a mixed bag when it comes to facing left-handed pitching at home. They have a horrible team average of .216 with 69 strikeouts in 288 plate appearances. Their 24% K rate is 23rd in the league, but their walk percentage of 12.2% is tops. They have the lowest BABIP at .241, but the fourth-highest ISO at .200. Their OPS is .739 which is 15th in the league. It’s a true crapshoot with what you’re going to get against them.
