Welcome back, folks! It’s been a boring couple of days, but the Phillies Betting Preview is primed for a big 2nd-half of the season as our beloved Fightin’ Phils try to successfully defend their National League crown. The last time we were here, we cashed as the Phillies rallied with 3 runs in the 9th to win 4-3, but our Miami Marlins +1.5 run wager came through. This puts us up 14.5 units through the first half of the season. Not too shabby.
Padres (-115) vs. Phillies (-105) O/U 9.5
The San Diego Padres are the first victims of the Philadelphia Phillies to start off the second half. The runners-up to Philly last season in the NL, the Padres come in struggling with a record of 43-47. Since June 1st, Philadelphia is 23-11, putting their season record at 48-41, still 12 games out of first place but a mere 0.5 games out of the final wild card. The first pitch for Friday’s matchup is 6:05 p.m.
Embed from Getty Images
Padres Pitching and Batting
San Diego hands the ball to RHP Yu Darvish (5-6 4.87) to start the second half. Age seems to be catching up to Darvish, as his numbers are up from only a year ago, and not in a good way. His WHIP of 1.27 is the highest since his injury-shortened season in 2018. Last year he administered 37 walks in 194.2 innings pitched. This year, he’s issued 28 bases on balls in only 85 innings. He’s always suffered from giving up the long ball and this year is no different, allowing 11 homers so far, for an average of 1.2 per nine innings.
Darvish has had moderate success against Philadelphia in the past, with a 2-1 record in 7 starts and a 2.23 ERA over 44.1 innings. His last visit to Citizens Bank Ballpark was an impressive 7 innings of shutout ball, giving up six hits, striking out five, and walking none. A month after that start, he gave up three runs on seven hits over six innings in a no-decision.
San Diego’s bullpen has been solid but not spectacular this season, with a 3.80 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25, and 23 saves in 40 save opportunities. They’re actually tied with the Phillies for the 5th-highest inherited runners scoring at 38%.
The Padres bats have been like the Phillies, inconsistent. They’re in the bottom third in runs scored per game with 4.46. They’re batting a collective team .235 average with 109 home runs, just above the league average of 105 (the Phillies have 99 in comparison). They have an OPS of .726 (Phillies is .742) and believe it or not, have actually stranded more runners, 637 to 629.
Phillies Pitching and Batting
Philadelphia is sending LHP Cristopher Sanchez (0-2 2.84) to the mound. He’s given up 22 hits and 9 runs (8 earned) over 25.1 innings. He’s registered 22 strikeouts against only four walks and has served up three gopher balls. This will be his first time facing the Padres. Sanchez has been solid all season since his initial start against the Rockies where he got the win but allowed three runs in 4.1 inning. He’s gone six innings and given up one earned run in each of his last two starts.
Philly’s offense is still on the inconsistent side. Over the last 10 games, they’ve only scored more than four runs twice, including the 19-run outburst. Be careful when you read other reports that talk about their new offensive strength because that game against the Nats is more of an outlier than a developing trend.
I really like the Phillies in this one, as Yu just isn’t pitching like the Yu we’re accustomed to seeing. He’s given up three or more runs in 7 out of his last 8 starts. While the Phillies aren’t scoring in droves, they are scoring enough to win games with their strong pitching. Being an underdog at home is just a bonus.
I’m also looking at the under of 9.5. In the last 20 games in Citizens Bank Park where the Phillies have been underdogs, the under has cashed 11 times to 8 over and 1 push. The last three games in this situation have gone under.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Philadelphia ML 3 units
Pick: San Diego-Philly UNDER 3 units
Up 14.5 units (+$1450)