We have a super small slate today (only 3 “Main Slate” games), which can help us more easily narrow our focus, but that also means other folks will need to do the same and there’s going to be more overlap than usual. Below are some ‘Targets’, surely to be popular plays, so also included are some ‘Values’ as well that were specifically selected to be “under-the-radar” picks to help us differentiate our lineup.
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Targets
Nolan Arenado
Arenado went 0-for-4 on Tuesday which ended an 8-game hit streak, but Arenado is still slashing .333/.654/1.035 for the month, including 8 doubles, 6 HR, 23 RBI, and 13 R. He’ll face off against LHP Justin Steele on Thursday who he’s seen quite a bit in the past. Arenado is 4-for-14 (.286) off of Steele in his career with a triple and a walk, but in those 15 plate appearances Arenado had ZERO strikeouts. We need players who have a better chance than not to put the bat on the ball and Arenado provides us with that. Arenado’s ownership projection is on the high side, as expected, at about 21%.
Nico Hoerner
Hoerner has a mini 4-game hit streak going, during which time he’s gone 9-for-16 (.563) with 2 doubles, a HR, 2 BB, 3 RBI, 6 R, and 4 stolen bases. Over his last 8 games he’s 14-for-33 (.424), so he’s been hot for a week and a half now, not just the last 4 games. The Cardinals send out Miles Mikolas on Thursday, who has been roughed up his last two times out: 18 hits, 8 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 6 K in 11 IP. Hoerner has faced Mikolas 22 times in his career, collecting 9 hits (1 2B) off of the RHP and striking out ZERO times. So we have another guy here who is superb at putting the bat on the ball against the opposing pitcher, albeit without a lot of pop in this case, but don’t underestimate the value of getting on base and collecting stolen bases. Stolen bases count for 5 points on DraftKings and 6 points on FanDuel, so it’s almost like hitting a double. Like Arenado, his projected ownership is high at about 28%.
Steven Kwan
Kwan had a decent April (.282), then hit a lull during May (.245) and June (.257), but has picked up the pace again in July, slashing .310/.460/.828 with 7 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB, 11 RBI, 13 R, and 2 SB. He’ll face last year’s AL Cy Young runner-up in Dylan Cease on Thursday. Cease appears to have returned to his Cy Young form, giving up 2 ER or less in 7 of his last 9 outings. Kwan has seen Cease 18 times, collecting 5 hits (1 2B) and 2 walks. Sticking with our theme, Kwan has only struck out twice in 18 plate appearances, so he’s putting the bat on the ball and hitting atop the Cleveland order. There are other dangerous lefty hitters behind him (Ramirez and Naylor) to help drive Kwan in.
Values
Lane Thomas
Thomas is 8-for-23 (.348) over his last 6 games, including 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, and 4 SB. He’ll face Kodai Senga Thursday who has been good, but the production he’s given up has mainly come from right-handed hitters. Citi Field gets a nice boost in home run potential from the weather today according to BallparkPal.com and Thomas is tied for the team lead in HR with 16 on the season.
Brendan Donovan
Donovan is batting .348 (23-for-66) in July and has a little 3-game hit streak going. During this streak he’s 6-for-14 (.429) with a double, 5 runs scored, and a stolen base. He squares off against LHP Justin Steele Thursday, and although he doesn’t have great numbers against lefties (or Steele — he’s 1-for-5), if the Cardinals can chase Steele early Donovan does have good numbers versus RHP: .295/.466/.840 and every single one of his 22 extra-base hits have come against RHP.
DJ Stewart
Stewart has been nothing spectacular this season in his limited opportunities, but opportunity is what puts him here. It is expected that Starling Marte will not be activated Thursday, so Stewart could get a crack Thursday and could provide a sneaky source of pop against a pitcher who notoriously gives up the long ball (Josiah Gray), playing in a park with great hitting conditions.
Betting Angle
Cubs Moneyline : I think the batters are kind of a wash here, but think Justin Steele gives the Cubs the edge over Miles Mikolas even though the Cards are at home. Mikolas has been worse at home than on the road, for what it’s worth.
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