Today’s format is going to be a little different. I wanted to zero in on the game with the highest over/under and the team with the highest implied run total to see if there were any matchups to exploit. Below is what I found!
Highest Over/Under: Marlins @ Reds (6:40 PM EST)
Game Over/Under: 10.5 runs
- Marlins: RHP Eury Perez ($9300 FanDuel) will take the hill for Miami. It will be his first start in the majors since July 6th. The Marlins are in desperate need of some pitching help and Perez was fantastic prior to being sent down to the Minors in an effort to manage his innings workload. He brings a 2.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP into the game and a 10.36 K per 9 rate. A word of caution, however, is that he’s got pretty stark home/road splits: 1.10 ERA and .181 opponent batting average at home versus 4.35 and .247 on the road. And Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the MLB.
- Reds: LHP Brandon Williamson ($7500 on FD) starts for the Reds. He’s shown flashes of being a pretty good pitcher, and even had a 2.45 ERA over 5 July starts, but got tagged for 5 earned runs his last time out against the Cubs. His season ERA stands at 4.85 and 1.35 WHIP. His price suggests he’s not a great bet to have a great night on Monday and his low K/9 rate (7.2) doesn’t help.
Being a rookie, there isn’t a lot of hitter history against him, but Perez’s debut came against the Reds. In that game Perez allowed 4 hits, 3 of which were extra-base hits. Jake Fraley and Tyler Stephenson had HRs while Nick Senzel added a double.
The Reds’ Williamson has never faced any of the Marlins’ hitters, however, Jorge Soler has the highest SLG, ISO, and wOBA in the entire MLB (min. 55 plate appearances).
- Jesus Sanchez (MIA) — Sanchez is 7-for-17 (.412) over the last 7 days including a pair of doubles.
- Luis Arraez (MIA) — the MLB’s batting average leader is 11-for-32 (.344) over the last 7 days including a pair of doubles.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) — he’s got the highest average for a Reds hitter over the last 7 days at .308 (8-for-26) including a pair of doubles.
Weather looks good according to BallparkPal.com. Park factors show this game to have the best chance for above-average runs scored, especially good conditions for home runs.
Highest Implied Team Total: Phillies (6:40 PM EST)
Phillies Implied Total: 6.2 runs
Game Over/Under: 10 runs
- Nationals: RHP Trevor Williams ($6100 on FD) takes the mound for the Nationals. Williams has a 4.72 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the season, and as poor as that is, his xFIP of 5.19 paints an even darker picture. He’s given up 9 ER in 10 IP his last two turns on 16 hits (2 HR), 4 BB, and 5 K. Williams’ home/road splits are both bad, but if you’re looking for something to key on, his left/right splits show lefties hit him a bit better: .305/.511/.867 versus .266/.498/.823.
- Phillies: LHP Ranger Suarez ($8700 on FD) is on the bump for Philly. His splits are pretty starkly contrasted. At home he has a 5.70 ERA while on the road it’s 2.76. He’s stingy to lefties, posting a .215/.338/.577 slashline, while righties slash .295/.443/.805 against him. On the season he has a 4.01 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He had a rough July all around (6.11 ERA) and his last start was a bit of a mixed bag: he allowed 10 hits and 2 walks in 6.1 innings pitched, but only surrendered 1 earned run.
Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) — Vargas is 6-for-13 (.462) against Suarez with 3 doubles, a HR, and a walk with ZERO strikeouts.
Lane Thomas (WAS) — Thomas is 6-for-17 (.353) against Suarez, including 2 doubles, and has just 1 strikeout in those 17 ABs.
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) — 5-for-10 (.500) with a double and THREE homers off Williams, plus 2 walks (2 K).
Nick Castellanos (PHI) — Nick is 11-for-28 (.393) against Williams, which includes 4 doubles, 2 HR, and 2 walks (2 K).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — Schwarber has hit FOUR homers off Williams, going 10-for-37 (.270) against him in his career. Two of those hits are doubles too, plus he’s collected 6 walks against him.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — Harper is 3-for-9 (.333) with a double, but has collected 5 walks as well. Seems Williams tends to pitch around Bryce but that allows the other hitters to capitalize.
- Lane Thomas has the highest BA for a Nationals hitter over the last 7 days (min. 11 at-bats). He’s 9-for-25 (.360) with 2 doubles and 3 HR, plus 10 RBI and 7 R. He’s even chipped in 2 SB.
- Jake Alu has only played 4 games over the last 7 days, but he’s 5-for-14 (.357) with a double, 5 RBI, 2 R, and 2 SB.
- C.J. Abrams is the only other Nats hitter with an average above .300 over the last 7 days. He’s 8-for-26 (.308) with 2 doubles, a HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, and 3 SB.
- Alec Bohm has the highest BA for a Phillies hitter over the last 7 days at .414. He’s 12-for-29 with 3 doubles, a HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, and 1 SB.
- Bryce Harper has picked it up a bit, going 11-for-29 (.379) with 4 doubles, a HR, 4 RBI, and 5 R over the last 7 days.
- J.T. Realmuto is 5-for-14 (.357) over the last 7 days with a HR.
- Brandon Marsh is 5-for-15 (.333) over the last 7 days with a double and a HR.
Hitting conditions appear to be nearly as good as Great American Ball Park, however, the forecast is calling for a chance of thunderstorms, so keep a close eye on this one to make sure it doesn’t get postponed.
Nationals Spread : Phillies should win this game but there’s enough matchup history here for the Nats to keep it close, especially with Suarez having such poor numbers at home.
Jorge Soler to record 2 Total Bases: