Thursday’s Main Slate has just 4 games (including the two 6:40 PM EST games) but we’ll do our best to pick out some winners for you. Note that I make a pick below for a Philadelphia hitter, so based on what they do to me when I pick them maybe you should pivot to someone else. Either way, let’s have a great Thursday!
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Matchups to Target
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt picked up his 1100th and 1101st RBI on Wednesday, passing Larry Doby and Don Mattingly on the all-time career RBI leaderboard, with the likes of Rickey Henderson, Frank Howard, and Dick Allen next up in his sights this season. He will get some RBI opportunities Thursday against RHP Zack Littell who he’s had success off of in the past. Actually, Littell has only managed to get Goldy out once in 7 career plate appearances, with Goldschmidt going 5-for-6 including a double, a HR, and a walk. Goldschmidt isn’t putting up MVP-like numbers like he did last season, but has been a solid contributor on a bad Cardinals team, and he is 6-for-22 (.273) over his last 5 games with a double and a pair of walks. This game has a pretty high over/under at 9.5, so there should be offense from both sides.
Wander Franco
After a pretty brutal July where he hit just .202, Franco is scorching right now, going 10-for-16 (.625) over his last 4 games, and he’s logged 5 home runs in his last 10 games. He’ll face LHP Matthew Liberatore on Thursday. Liberatore has not been good this season, especially on the road where he sports an 11.48 ERA in 4 starts (4.44 ERA in 6 home games). Righties beat him up at a good clip too, slashing .339/.548/.962 against him (.219/.375/.691 to lefties). Wander is a switch hitter but he has better numbers from the right side of the plate, slashing .316/.506/.895 versus .269/.457/.788 from the left side. As I mentioned above, this game has a high 9.5 O/U, and TB has one of the higher implied totals on the day at 5.5 runs, so look for Franco to be a big part of that.
Alec Bohm
Bohm had a nice July where he slashed .337/.494/.916 and he’s doing more of the same in August, slashing .353/.588/.960 through 8 games. He’ll face off with the Nats’ LHP Patrick Corbin who he’s seen a bunch in his career. Bohm is 7-for-20 (.350) off Corbin in his career, with 2 doubles, 2 HR, and 2 BB. He’s generally a good hitter against LHP too, slashing .330/.594/.951 against them (.279/.380/.721 against RHP). Corbin also allows more production to righties, with right-handed hitters producing a .308/.504/.854 slashline (.253/.341/.661 to lefties). Corbin hasn’t really been effective regardless of park, but he’s been slightly worse on the road too, with a 4.78/5.31 home/road ERA split. This game has a somewhat high O/U at 9 runs, and Philly has one of the highest implied run totals at 5.7, however, keep an eye on this one because there is a chance of rain/postponement. Conditions are good for the long ball though according to BallparkPal.com. For more on this game, check out my GTS colleague’s betting preview.
Bullpen Games
Rockies @ Dodgers
This game has an 8.5 O/U, but the bulk of that appears to be expected to come from LA, as they have a 5.7 implied run total. LHP Ty Blach will “start” for the Rockies, but figures to see limited action. The Rockies’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA in the National League, and has given up the most hits and most walks in the NL. You don’t need me to tell you that you can use Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, but James Outman, David Peralta, Kike Hernandez, and Will Smith are all batting over .300 over the last 7 days (minimum 11 at-bats).Â
Royals @ Red Sox
This game features the highest O/U at 10.5 runs and Boston has the highest implied team total at 6.6. LHP Austin Cox will open for the Royals, but he too will see limited action. The Royals are the American League version of the Rockies ‘pen, sporting the second-worst ERA, fourth-most hits, and second-most walks in the AL. Alec Marsh, who’s been a starter this year, may come in for long “relief” but hasn’t been very effective either. Alex Verdugo is 5-for-14 (.357) with 2 doubles over his last 5 games, and Rafael Devers has 29 HR (10th most) and 79 RBI (9th most) on the season. Pablo Reyes has been hitting well in this series though, so if he’s starting he could be usable despite hitting at the bottom of the order.
Values
David Peralta
As I mentioned above, Peralta is batting over .300 the last 7 days — .350 to be exact (7-for-20 with 3 doubles, 7 RBI, 5 R, and 2 SB). If he gets an at-bat or two against Ty Blach, he’s 4-for-11 lifetime off of him, including a double, a HR, and a walk (2 K).
Pablo Reyes
Reyes had a nice game on Monday, going 3-for-4 with a double, a HR, 4 RBI, 3 R, and a stolen base. The next game he went 0-for-4, but then followed it up Wednesday with a 3-for-3 performance (albeit all singles) and a caught stealing (but at least he was running, which gives you a chance for more points!). As I mentioned above, this game has the highest O/U and the Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the day, so if Reyes is playing again he could be a sneaky value play.
Jose Siri
If you’re looking for some sneaky power, Siri could be your guy. He’s not swinging the bat for average, but he had 2 HR Wednesday and on the season he’s averaging 11.3 at-bats per home run. That puts him in front of Max Muncy, and behind ONLY Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, and Shohei Ohtani for the season. That’s some serious pop.
Pitcher
James Paxton
He’s not the most expensive pitcher on the board, although he’s up there, but he’s got a 10.1 k per 9 rate, a 3.60 ERA on the year (3.00 at home), and the Red Sox are heavily favored in this one. The Royals are middle of the pack on the season, averaging 8.71 K per game, but on the road they strike out sixth-most (9.69 per game) and Wednesday they struck out 12 times.
Betting Angle
Wander Franco to Steal a Base : he leads the team in SB and will get on base a couple times today.
Alec Bohm 2 Total Bases : just need a double for this one to hit, but we’ll take two singles as well.
Jose Siri to hit a HR : this is more of a dart throw and certainly risky, but we talked about the kind of pop he has above.
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