Well, that wasn’t pretty… other than Manny Machado coming through, our other hitter targets went a combined 2-for-19 on the day. Ouch. At least our pitchers came through (Aaron Nola and Javier Assad). Let’s put that behind us though and pick some winners for Tuesday. Below are some hitters with good matchups, plus a few stacks and some pitchers you can use.
Matchups to Target
Mountcastle continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the league, slashing .403/.612/1.086 in the month of August. He’s in the midst of an 8-game hit streak where he’s gone 12-for-34 (.353) with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 6 R, and a pair of walks. He has been raking against LHP this season, slashing .356/.712/1.109 against them. On Tuesday he gets LHP Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has a respectable 3.44 ERA (3.91 xFIP) and 1.21 WHIP, however, Mountcastle has a career BA of .583 against him (7-for-12). This includes 1 double and FOUR home runs, plus 4 BB:2 K. This type of dominance might cause Kikuchi to pitch him differently, but not sure it will matter with the way Mountcastle is locked in at the plate.
Arenado is not the Cardinals’ hottest hitter right now (FYI, Andrew Knizner is — he’s batting .400 over the last 5 games), but he’s slashing .288/.493/.818 in August and he’ll face the Pirates’ RHP Johan Oviedo on Tuesday. He’s 5-for-8 off of Oviedo in his career (0 BB:1 K). Oviedo had 2 good starts to begin August, but over his last 2 starts he’s pitched a total of 9 innings, allowing 10 H (2 HR), 10 ER, 7 BB:7 K.
I know, I know, you can ALWAYS use Freddie. But we’ll quickly point out that he’s facing Noah Syndergaard on Tuesday. Thor strolls to the mound with his 6.67 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Revenge game? Perhaps. But Freddie is 10-for-24 lifetime off of Syndergaard, including 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB:5 K. Freddie has cooled of late, but despite going 3-for-27 (.111) over the last 8 games, he’s still batting .356 in August.
Walker is having a nice August, slashing .333/.623/1.018 for the month with 2 2B, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 11 R, and even a stolen base. The D-backs are coming off a dramatic 11-inning win on Monday in Arizona and should be riding high. Walker will square off against Jon Gray Tuesday night, and in his career he’s 10-for-26 (.385) off the righty, with 3 2B and 2 HR (0 BB:3 K). Gray has been stellar his last two outings, but his season xFIP stands at 4.40, suggesting his 3.52 ERA is not as good as it appears.
These two appear here often, typically when they face lefties. And today they both do, so I’ll just quickly add their slashlines versus LHP.
Manny Machado – .343/.562/.974
- Facing LHP Jesus Luzardo he’s 3-for-5 with 2 HR (1 BB:1K)
Jorge Soler – .286/.714/1.102
- Facing LHP Blake Snell he’s 3-for-9 (.333) with 1 2B (1 BB:3 K)
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs Yusei Kikuchi (3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Other than Mountcastle, there are other O’s hitters that have had success against the Jays’ southpaw. Switch-hitting Adley Rutschman has better numbers when hitting from the right side of the plate and is 5-for-14 (.357) off of Kikuchi with 2 HR (4 BB:2 K); he’s also seeing the ball well right now, batting .350 over the last 7 days (7-for-20). If Jorge Mateo is playing, he’ll be an incredible value and is 6-for-15 (.400) with a 2B and a 3B off Kikuchi, and has 25 SB on the season so is able to get you points that way too. Gunnar Henderson, who is just 1-for-7 off Kikuchi, could be in play too just because of how hot he has been — 12-for-26 (.462) with 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, and 6 R over the last 6 games.
Pirates vs Adam Wainwright (8.42 ERA, 2.01 WHIP)
This is more a play against Waino than an endorsement of the Pirates hitters. Young switch-hitting catcher Endy Rodriguez is 6-for-11 (.545) over his last 3 games and has better numbers against RHP. Connor Joe is 7-for-20 (.350) over his last 6 games, and is coming off a 3-for-4 day on Monday where all three of his hits were doubles. Over the course of his career Andrew McCutcheon has seen Wainwright a lot, and is 26-for-87 (.299) against him with 7 2B, 1 3B, and 3 HR. If you’re looking for some pop, Bryan Reynolds has 18 HR on the season but is just 7-for-33 (.212) off the veteran in his career. The Pirates thrashed the Cardinals Monday, winning 11-1 and will bring some confidence into the contest being played at PNC Park.
DFS Value Pitchers
Wade Miley ($7900 on FanDuel)
I didn’t think he’d do it all season long, but here he is in late August with a 3.05 ERA in 16 starts for the Brew Crew. He faces a Twins team that hits LHP poorly and although he’s not a strikeout pitcher himself, the Twins do strike out a lot. The most in the entire MLB in fact at 10.31 K per game. The Brewers are also favored in this game (-115 on FD).
Kyle Harrison ($7000 on FanDuel)
The Giants’ #1 prospect will be making his major league debut on Tuesday against the Phillies. Although Harrison’s ERA of 4.52 in 2023 doesn’t inspire confidence, he’s got 109 K in 67.2 IP. READ THAT AGAIN. That’s 1.62 K per IP, or 14.6 K per 9 IP. That would put him higher than today’s starter with the next highest rate, Blake Snell at 12.3 K per 9. The Giants are not favored in this one, but Harrison is a LHP and the Phils send out quite a few lefties in their lineup (Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh) so this could be a good spot for him.
Kyle Harrison Over K’s : I think against a lefty-heavy lineup he stays in the game for 5 innings and collects a strikeout per IP.
Ryan Mountcastle 2 Total Bases : last time he faced Kikuchi we took this one and he came through, so we’re rolling with it again.
Brewers Moneyline : Miley holds down the Twins and the Brewers get it done against shaky Bailey Ober.