Well, we’ve made it through another week and the last official weekend of summer for beachgoers is upon us. Let’s kick off the weekend with some Friday night fireworks with our picks below!Â
Matchups to Target
Rafael Devers
Devers has just one hit in his last 14 at-bats, however, but the Royals have the prescription for what ails you — Jordan Lyles. Devers will face Lyles and his 6.51 ERA/1.31 WHIP on Friday in Kansas City. Lyles has also given up the second-most home runs in all of baseball on the season (33) and Devers has seen him before. Devers is 6-for-19 (.316) off of Lyles in his career, with 3 2B, 1 HR, and 1 BB:2K. Looking at the AB per HR leaders on the season, Devers is 16th in league with a ratio of 16.7 at-bats per HR. Devers’ last HR was 42 at-bats ago in his first at-bat against the Yankees back on 8/20. So? So. He’s. Due! Park factors don’t look great for HR, but we can score points on doubles too. Lyles splits also show that left-handed hitters hit him a bit better, too.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladdy has an interesting hit streak going. It currently stands at 11 games, but we normally see these types of streaks include some inflated batting averages. In his case, he’s 14-for-47, good for just .298. Regardless, it’s a streak nonetheless, which means he’s hitting, and what hitter wouldn’t like to do so in the friendliest of parks? The Jays take on the Rockies in Colorado on Friday, and the Rockies will send Chris Flexen out to slaughter. Flexen has a 6.94 ERA on the season to go along with a 1.73 WHIP. Flexen is Lyles-lite, giving up 19 HR on year. Guererro has faced Lyles before, albeit without a HR surprisingly; Vlad Jr. is 4-for-7 (.571) off of Flexen in his career with a double, 2BB, and 2 K. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, this game has the highest O/U on the slate, and the Blue Jays are favored as well.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani and the Angels will take on the Oakland A’s Friday night in Oakland. The Athletics’ LHP JP Sears will toe the rubber, and while this is a lefty-lefty matchup, Ohtani is 3-for-5 off of Sears in his career with a double and has yet to strike out against him. Ohtani of course is having a fantastic season at the plate and leads all of baseball with 44 HR. We mentioned above that Devers goes 16.7 at-bats per home run — guess who leads that stat? Yep, Ohtani. 11.1 at-bats per home run. His last HR was 27 at-bats ago. Sorry Sears, he’s due, too.
Yandy Diaz
Yandy slashed .356/.515/.924 in August. He’s got a little 3-game hit streak going (4-for-12, .333) and faces the Guardians’ Cal Quantrill Friday night in Cleveland. Quantrill is coming off the IL for his first start since July 5th in Atlanta, where he gave up 11 H and 5 ER. His ERA for the season stands at 6.45 and his WHIP is 1.57, so he wasn’t particularly effective (to put it nicely) prior to the IL stint. Diaz has had some success off of Quantrill in limited opportunities, going 2-for-3 off the righty with a double.
DFS Value Plays
Luis Rengifo
Rengifo has an 8-game hit streak going, during which he’s a scorching 16-for-31 (.516), including 2 2B, 1 3B, and 3 HR. Five of those games were multi-hit efforts and he’s facing JP Sears who has struggled lately, allowing 18 hits and 13 ER over 10 innings pitched in his last 2 starts, although Rengifo is personally 0-for-4 off of (1 K).
Miguel Rojas
Rojas is here because of his success against the Braves’ LHP Max Fried. In his career, Rojas is 8-for-23 (.348) against Fried, including 2 doubles and a HR (2 BB:3 K). Prior to going 0-for-3 on 8/30, he was on a 6-game hit streak. If he’s playing, he could be a sneaky play and likely would have low ownership against such a good pitcher.
Betting Angle
Rafael Devers Over Total Bases https://www.metabet.io/catalog?tab=players&codebase=wordpress&siteID=lastwordonsports:Â reasoning above!Â
Shohei Ohtani Home Run https://www.metabet.io/catalog?tab=players&codebase=wordpress&siteID=lastwordonsports: long overdue, see above!Â
