Let’s get one last MLB DFS article in before your head explodes and only thinks about football tomorrow!! Oh who am I kidding, I’m sure football is on the brain already so read this article and set your lineup, then head over to my colleague’s betting preview to get ready for Thursday night football.
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Matchups to Target
Ozzie Albies
Albies is having a fantastic season and you may not even know it with all the other storylines going on in the MLB and being overshadowed by a 30/60 season as well as having the NL home run leader on his team. In addition to his 29 HR and .837 OPS, he’s got 91 RBI which is good for 9th-most in all of baseball — and that’s despite having missed 13 games due to injury! He went 0-for-6 against the Rockies back on 8/28, but since then? He’s 11-for-27 (.407) with a HR. Wednesday he’ll face RHP Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals, and he’s 2-for-4 off of him in his career with a home run and a walk. Hudson pitched seven strong his last time out, allowing just 3 hits and 1 ER — but that was the Pirates. This is the Braves. That could be why he’s THE cheapest starting pitcher on FanDuel.Â
Francisco Lindor
With the Mets’ struggles this season you may not realize that Lindor is having a pretty good season, too. With Acuna’s 30/60 fanfare, Lindor’s 25/25 and potential 30/30 season is flying under the radar. Wednesday the Mets will face the Nationals in D.C. and righty Joan Adon will take the ball first for the Nats. He brings a 5.90 ERA into the matchup (4.94 xFIP). Take out the 6 IP against the Marlins on 8/25 where he gave up just 3 hits and 0 ER, the rest of the month of August looks like this: 18 IP, 20 H, 16 ER, 5 BB:19 K. Eesh. Outside of the K/IP ratio, that’s ugly. The Mets’ offense has been feisty lately while winning 4 of their last 5, and Lindor has hits in 4 of his last 5 as well. He’s also got HR in 2 of his last 3. Adon has a limited sample size, but through 7 starts his batter splits look like this: .283/.550/.856 to lefties vs .180/.300/.588 to righties. Look for Lindor and the other left-handed hitters here to jump on Adon. Ballparkpal.com shows that hitting conditions will be pretty good today and this game has the highest O/U on the Main Slate also at 10.5.
CJ Abrams
This one is more of a gut feel since Abrams is just 2-for-24 (.083) over his last 6 games, but a baseball season is full of ups and downs, so it’s about time he goes back up. Abrams is batting atop the Nationals lineup, and provided he can get himself on base, he can rack up the points by stealing bases also. He stole 3 bases in a game as recently as 8/28, and has 7 multi-SB efforts on the season leading to a total of 38 swipes in all, which is 5th-most in the MLB. The Mets will roll with Jose Butto on Wednesday, and he’s given up at least 1 run in all 5 of his appearances this season. Perhaps even more intriguing is that his BB:K ratio is 14:10, so even if Abrams doesn’t get the bat on the ball, Butto has been handing out free passes in bunches. Again, this game sports the highest O/U so he could have the most opportunities to put up points since hitting leadoff would give him give him the best chance to get the most plate appearances out of all the Nats’ hitters.
Luis Robert Jr.
Every time I say Jordan Lyles is going to get crushed it seems he goes out and pitches a gem, which is a hard pill to swallow seeing as though he’s had 3 quality starts on the season and “boasts” 15 losses to go along with his 6.29 ERA. So let’s say he’s going to have a great day today, maybe even fantastic — just not against Luis Robert. The numbers don’t back me up here either, Robert has had 12 opportunities to get a hit against Lyles in his career and has been successful just twice. BUT, one hit was a double and one was a HR. Additionally, Lyles has managed to strike him out just 1 time in those at-bats, so Robert is getting contact. Robert was dealing with an injury the last couple days but is expected to be back in the lineup Wednesday night (so double-check your lineup before gametime if you use him), and I expect him to be rested and ready to go. If the Sox can chase Lyles, the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should be an additional positive for Robert’s chances.
Values
Kerry Carpenter
Carpenter has been a bit of a bright spot in an otherwise dismal Tigers season (again). He’s batting .291 on the season, plus 20 HR and an .881 OPS. He faces Clarke Schmidt in the Bronx Wednesday night and being a lefty he’ll have the opportunity to use the short porch in right field. Schmidt is more generous to lefty hitters than right (.307/.513/.892 vs .229/.399/.664), and Carpenter is 2-for-3 off of Schmidt in his career. This game features a somewhat high O/U at 9 and hitting conditions look good for the long ball.
Mike Moustakas
With injuries piling up on the Angels, “Moose” is getting some regular at-bats and Wednesday night should be no different with Ohtani dealing with an oblique issue. Moose is 6-for-18 (.333) in September, but the reason he’s here is because of his success against the opposing pitcher, Kyle Gibson. He’s 12-for-38 (.316) off of Gibson in his career, with 4 doubles, a HR, and 5 BB:2 K. Gibson is coming off an outing in which he lasted just 4.1 IP against the ChiSox, allowing 9 H (3 HR), 7 ER, 0 BB:2 K.Â
MJ Melendez
Melendez has multi-hit efforts in 3 of 4 September games, going 7-for-13 (.538) over that stretch, which includes a double, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 R, and 4 BB:1 K. The Royals have never seen opposing pitcher Touki Touissant before, so we’re kind of riding the hot hand here, but Touissant also hasn’t been great. He has a 4.87 ERA (xFIP of 5.01) on the year and 1.48 WHIP.
Betting Angle
Tigers Spread : the Yankees offense isn’t great and Matt Manning has been pretty good (part of a combined no-hitter this season), I think this will be a close one that the Tigers could even win.
Albies 2 Total Bases : see above!
Abrams Stolen Base : I’m kinda shocked you’re not even getting +200 on this, but maybe that means we’re onto something here. See above for reasoning!
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