In Friday’s Phillies Betting Preview, I expected a plethora of runs, both for and against the Phillies, to be scored in taking alternate totals for each of the first 5 innings over and the game total over. They pushed the first 5 innings and fell one run short while winning the game 5-4.
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Dodgers (-110) vs Phillies (-110) O/U 9
In the second game of the series, the Dodgers send rookie RHP Bobby Miller (2-0 1.06) to square off against the Phillies Aaron Nola (5-4 4.30). The first pitch in the late afternoon matinee is set for 4:05 PM.
Miller will be making his fourth major league start for the Dodgers in this contest. He currently holds a 2-0 record with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.765 WHIP, four walks, and 16 strikeouts over 17 innings of work this season. In his last start against the Yankees at home, Miller threw six scoreless innings, allowing only one hit with two walks and seven strikeouts. Despite his solid performance, the Dodgers lost the game with a score of 4-1.
This will be Miller’s first career outing at Citizens Bank Park as he faces the Phillies for the first time in his fourth major league start. Prior to his call-up, Miller had a 1-1 record with a 5.65 ERA, a 1.186 WHIP, six walks, and 12 strikeouts over 14.1 innings of work in four starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City in the Pacific Coast League.
Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies in his 14th start of the year. With a record of 5-4, Nola has posted a 4.30 ERA, a 1.078 WHIP, 21 walks, and 77 strikeouts over 81.2 innings pitched.
Nola’s last start against the Tigers at home resulted in a win for the Phillies. He delivered an impressive performance, pitching seven innings and allowing three runs, none of which were earned, on just one hit. Nola showcased excellent control with three walks and recorded an impressive 12 strikeouts. The Phillies secured an 8-3 victory.
Over his last three starts, Nola holds a 1-1 record, maintaining a 4.26 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, eight walks, and 24 strikeouts across 19 innings pitched. In this contest, Nola will be making his ninth career start against the Dodgers. While he has enjoyed success against them in his career, boasting a 2-0 record with a 3.86 ERA, a 0.964 WHIP, 11 walks, and an impressive 54 strikeouts over 46.2 innings of work, he’s given up four earned runs in his last two contests against the Dodgers.
I’m looking at the prop bets for pitchers’ strikeouts. Miller’s over 5.5 is currently at +105 on Bet365, while Nola’s over is 6.5 at +100. With the under being expected to hit, I would have envisioned a total higher than just 9.5. Something doesn’t add up to me there. The Phillies have the 8th-most strikeouts (569) as a team in the majors, with the Dodgers not far behind in 12th (561). Each pitcher is just a shade under 9 K’s/9 innings.
I’m taking both starting pitchers over their respective strikeouts for 2 units apiece.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Nola OVER 6.5 strikeouts 2 units  Miller OVER 5.5 strikeouts 2 units
Season Record:
Up 3 units (+$300)
