In the last Phillies Betting Preview, I called for Aaron Nola to be the ace he’s alleged to be and win. Unfortunately, the Mets still seem to own the Phillies and they won 4-1 as part of a 3-game sweep.
Since that has been a while ago, the Phillies have started to heat up and, because I’m a superstitious fan, I’ve refrained from writing because I didn’t want to jinx them. However, my management frowns on superstitions and thus, here I am.
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Dodgers (-105) vs Phillies (-115) O/U 9.5
The Los Angeles Dodgers pay their only visit to Citizens Bank Park this season starting Friday. They trot out RHP Michael Grove (0-2 8.14 ERA) to the mound and the Phillies answer with LHP Ranger Suarez (1-2 5.47). The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m.
The beginning of the season hasn’t been kind to Michael Grove, the talented right-handed pitcher for the Dodgers. He has endured a challenging start, with a disappointing 0-2 record, accompanied by an alarming 8.14 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in his initial outings. Recently, he faced the Yankees, and despite his valiant effort of pitching five innings, he conceded four hits, resulting in four earned runs while managing to strike out seven batters. As he prepares for his next start, one can’t help but wonder if Grove will deliver a comparable performance.
The Dodgers’ batting lineup has fared relatively well this season, largely due to the exceptional contributions of Freddie Freeman. Freeman has been a standout player, leading the team in hits, average, and on-base percentage, accumulating an impressive 84 hits and boasting a formidable .333/.407/.563 stat line for the season. On the other hand, Max Muncy has managed to take the lead in home runs and RBIs for the team, despite a less impressive .202/.332/.500. While Mookie Betts and Will Smith have also shown commendable performances, the team’s offensive productivity noticeably declines beyond these key players.
Meanwhile, the Phillies’ left-handed pitcher, Ranger Suarez, has encountered a rocky start to the season. With a rather discouraging 1-2 record, a 5.47 ERA, and a 1.54 WHIP in his initial appearances, Suarez has faced his fair share of challenges. In his most recent start against the Nationals, however, he demonstrated resilience by pitching seven innings and conceding only one earned run, even though he allowed eight hits and struck out just three batters. As Suarez gears up for his upcoming start against the formidable Dodgers, it wouldn’t be surprising to witness a similar performance from him.
On the offensive front, the Phillies’ batting lineup has gained momentum and now appears more cohesive, thanks in part to the amazing recovery from Tommy John by Bryce Harper. Nick Castellanos has taken charge, leading the team in hits, average, and on-base percentage with an impressive tally of 76 hits and a .315/.363/.494 slash line this season. Despite a relatively modest .171/.321/.419 slash line, Kyle Schwarber has managed to emerge as the team’s home run leader with 16 to his name and appears to be flourishing in the leadoff role he was recently inserted into. Alec Bohm has been a steady contributor as well, leading the team with 37 RBIs while maintaining a .265/.321/.403 stat line. Harper, who has recently returned from injury, has shown promise with a .296/.390/.452 in his first 115 at-bats. Overall, as we approach mid-season, the Phillies’ batting lineup seems to be heating up, painting an optimistic picture for their future endeavors.
There isn’t much to like with either pitcher. Suarez looks to have the edge on paper but is simply too inconsistent to garner enough confidence to invest in him. What this leads me to are the bats of the teams. The Dodgers have already posted 36 runs on the Phillies in three games this season. The Phils have chipped in 11 of their own. I’m looking at two different alternate totals here. The first one is the alternate total of 10 for the entire game. A half-run changes the juice from -110 to +105. Secondly, I’m looking at the alternate run total of 5 for the prop bet first five innings. The total of 4.5 was even money, so I’ll take the chance of a push in order to gain an additional 30%.
Both of these alternative wagers were found on BetMGM’s Sportsbook.
Bets and Season Record
Pick: Alt. OVER: 10 +105 2 Units Alt OVER First 5 innings: 5 +130 2 Units
Up 5 units (+$500)