Phillies Betting Preview: Looking for Value vs Blue Jays

Phillies Betting Recap

In our last Phillies Betting Preview on Sunday, I recommended an investment of over the 9.5 total. The Phillies did their half by scoring six runs, but Taijuan Walker learned how to pitch again and shut the Red Sox down, allowing just one run over six innings. Our 3-unit wager went up in smoke in the 6-1 loss. As they always say about gambling for a living “It’s a tough way to make an easy living”.

Toronto Blue Jays (-105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-115) O/U 8.5

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The Blue Jays and Phillies look to conclude their interleague series with each other on Wednesday afternoon. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m.
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Taking the mound for Toronto is RHP Kevin Gausman (2-3 3.86) and he is opposed by the Phillies RHP Zach Wheeler (3-2 4.26). Interestingly enough, both starters are coming off of losses to the Boston Red Sox.

Gausman has been solid this season, going seven or more innings in three out of his five starts. As previously mentioned, his last outing against Boston was a disaster, giving up 10 hits in 3.1 innings and eight runs, all earned. He had been on a run of 14 consecutive innings without allowing a run.

His counterpart for Philadelphia has also been solid so far for the season. Wheeler allowed only three hits in three of his five starts. While his ERA is slightly elevated over his career numbers, it’s simply because he hasn’t really extended his stamina yet, since he has yet to pitch into the seventh inning. Once his duration is increased, his ERA will fall into line.

Big things were predicted this season for Toronto, but most of that hype had surrounded their offense. While their offense has been decent, averaging 4.92 runs per game (the league average is 4.59), their pitching has been equally as strong, with a team ERA of 4.19 (the league mark is 4.32).

After last season’s magical run to the World Series, Philadelphia fans were expecting big things this season. Injuries seemed to slightly derail a return trip to the Fall Classic, but getting Bryce Harper back into the everyday lineup will help a slightly below-average offense (4.39 runs/game). Sadly, I’m not sure what can help get their pitching back, currently sitting five spots from the bottom with a 4.94 ERA.

Given the Phillies’ poor pitching, focusing on the under might not seem logical at first glance. But digging deeper to some of the platoon splits quickly shows some value.

While Toronto has understandably faced more right-handed pitching, their batting average is a full 19 points lower than when they tee off against lefties.

May has typically been a good month for Wheeler with a career ERA of 3.65. Even though it’s currently sitting at a 6.75, I consider that an outlier because of his poor outing against Boston.

I also like the Phillies on the money line here. Like most teams, Toronto doesn’t hit as well on the road as they do at home, although their power numbers increase fairly dramatically. But the heart of the Phillies lineup, their 2-3-4-5 hitters are a combined 23 for 65 (.353) with five home runs and nine RBIs.

Bets and Season Record

Picks: Under 8.5 runs 2 UNITS     Philly -115 ML 2 UNITS

Season Record:

Run Line: 2-0 (+8 units)

O/U: 2-2 (-2 units)

Money Line: 2-0 (+3 units)

Total: 6-2 

Up 9 units (+$900)

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Joey House, Philadephia Editor
Joey House, Philadephia Editor
Sports have always been a part of Joey's life. He grew up in a Penn State household and became a Phillies and Eagles fan the same year, 1980. Not just because of their runs to their championship games, but because all his friends were either Harold Carmichael or Pete Rose on the playground. Gambling came later, as he was anointed with the moniker "House" because he ran all of the gambling and poker operations on his Navy ship. Now he brings over 25 years of gambling activity, both from the bettor's and "bookies" perspective, to help you maximise both your financial and entertainment returns.

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