Phillies Betting Preview: Phillies right the ship

Phillies Betting Recap

In our last Phillies Betting Recap for Monday’s contest against the Giants, our 4-unit wager was on the over of 8.5 runs. It looked like a slam dunk after the two teams combined for eight runs in the 2nd inning. The Phillies nudged it over in the 6th and that was the last run scored. It doesn’t matter if you win by a run or 10 runs, they all count the same. The win runs our total betting record to 9-2 and up 17 units.

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Phillies (-125) at Giants (+105) 

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The Phillies wrap up their three-game series against the Giants with a late afternoon game before they return home for the weekend. The Phillies RHP Taijuan Walker (3-2 5.75) squares off against the Giants RHP Ross Stripling (0-2 7.14). The first pitch is scheduled for 3:45 p.m.

Walker’s last appearance was a six-inning effort, which resulted in a no-decision but a Philadelphia triumph. He gave up three earned runs on seven hits and three strikeouts. Sadly, he actually lowered his ERA to 5.75 (that gives you an idea of how poor he’s been pitching this year).

Actually, though, that’s not entirely correct. He’s had two horrible outings and then a few decent and three really good efforts. His problem this year has been consistency or a lack thereof.

His counterpart Stripling has been even less effective so far this season. He’s appeared in eight games with four starts. He does not have much in the way of stamina, not having made it out of the fifth in any of his four starts. This was LHP Sean Manaea‘s turn in the rotation and it’s quite possible he’ll be the first one out of the bullpen if Stripling runs into trouble.

There’s a very good chance of just that happening. Stripling has struggled mightily with keeping the ball in the park. He’s tied in 4th-place in the home runs allowed department, not exactly the category you want to be leading. What’s worse is that of the top 14 pitchers in that group, he’s pitched significantly less innings than the rest. The Phillies are going to a few homers today.

This bodes well for a team that is effective at getting runners on base. Philadelphia has a team on-base percentage of .323 this year, but unfortunately, they have also averaged stranding over seven runners a game. I think that will change this game for a number of reasons.

Stripling simply just doesn’t pitch very deep into games and the Giants bullpen is not what you would call stellar. While they have had a few good outings, they are still the third-worst unit in the National League.

I think the Phillies’ Walker is starting to straighten things out. Even though he gave up seven hits and three earned runs in his last outing, he didn’t serve up a gopher ball in the high-altitude Coors Field. The average exit velocity on his batted balls last game was 86.6 MPH, indicating that when the Rockies made contact, it generally wasn’t well hit.

After winning five straight, Philadelphia has now lost three consecutive games. I think Walker will put an end to that streak and they catch a little momentum going into the weekend homestand.

What I’m Betting: Phillies vs Giants

The wager I’m going to take though is not the Phillies on the money line, but rather the Phillies -1.5 run line because it pays +135. My 2-unit wager, if successful, will return 4.05 units. Anytime that I can get value and even money or better, I invest.

Bets and Season Record

Pick: Phillies -1.5 +135 run line 2 UNITS

Season Record:

Run Line: 2-0 (+8 units)

O/U: 4-2 (+4 units)

Money Line: 3-0 (+5 units)

Total: 8-2 

Up 17 units (+$1,700)

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Joey House, Philadephia Editor
Joey House, Philadephia Editor
Sports have always been a part of Joey's life. He grew up in a Penn State household and became a Phillies and Eagles fan the same year, 1980. Not just because of their runs to their championship games, but because all his friends were either Harold Carmichael or Pete Rose on the playground. Gambling came later, as he was anointed with the moniker "House" because he ran all of the gambling and poker operations on his Navy ship. Now he brings over 25 years of gambling activity, both from the bettor's and "bookies" perspective, to help you maximise both your financial and entertainment returns.

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